Wednesday 7 November 2012

Election Arbitrage

Scott brought the following Nate Silver piece to my attention - too late for this year, but something to think about in future elections:

And it's worth mentioning that Nate called this election just about perfectly. For various reasons, the media wanted to portray this election as a close one, but the reality was always different, and Nate's reputation grows as that of his 'mealy-mouthed' wimpy rivals who are afraid to offer a clear opinion, and back it up, declines. If you followed my advice from a couple of months ago on how to play this election, you no doubt did very well, but more important was the lesson that in betting, and more so in political betting than other areas perhaps, where you look for your data is the key.

1 comment:

AL said...

Turkeys voting for Xmas springs to mind.

Let's hope Obama can get power restored to New York soon - 10 days without power isn't too long to wait i suppose?