Sunday, 4 November 2012

The Master

I'm not sure how interesting these 'weekend football summaries' are to readers, but I'll touch on a few highlights, lowlights or things that I thought were interesting.

The big highlight was undoubtedly the continued success of Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster selections, finding two more on Saturday, and Liverpool v Newcastle United today, and extending his winning sequence to seven which, when you are talking about draws, is quite remarkable. Not that anyone would, but an accumulator on those six draws at 3.45, 3.66, 3.45, 3.38, 3.6, 4.0 and 4.3 would have amounted to 9,116. And then Pete had three of the previous five selections also win, making it 10 winners from the last 12. All the more remarkable when you consider that the system started off with one winner from 14. How fickle our results can be. Drawmaster now sits proudly atop the Friendly Tipster Table, included below.


Here are the Drawmaster results since October:
I was looking at my own HT0-0 bets, which at one time in this young season had me quite excited. After 58 extended selections, exactly half had been winners, and at an average price of 2.94, the level stakes profit was 27.76 points. Promising, but subsequent results have seen a regression to the norm, with just 3 of the next 32 winning, including two today, so the run was even worse up to and including yesterday.

As with Drawmaster, (I am assuming), nothing has changed with the selection process, just a couple of examples of how short-term winning or losing sequences occur and the importance of not getting too carried away by either the wins or the losses. 

Neil quietly moves into fifth spot with some consistently good results. Here are his results from October:
And Premier Betting completed a good weekend for Pete Nordsted with two winners and moving up to 7th.

Little Al moved within a whisker of profitability with two draws from three selections, and Football Elite moved up three places on the week to 14th. Tony found some winning lays again to move up to 16th, and backing the Lay The Draw selections continues to struggle, as this strategy drops below Griff's two entries into last place. Griff has gone very quiet, with no selections in a month.

As for the XX Draws, another profit when backing the selections across the board (up 2.87 points) but the returns from the individual bets are so far not in line with each other as I suspected they would be. The Match Odds Draw bet is the best, with the results for the Classic, Extended, and Bundesliga below, with the Under 1.5 the worst:
There's no reason why the U1.5 should be so poor relative to the U2.5 or U3.5, and I expect this to even out in time, but for now, the insurance against a 0-1 or 1-0 result doesn't seem worth taking.
And that's all for now, other than the full table. There may be some small updates needing to be made, and I'll get to them, but I think the important P&L numbers are all there. 

1 comment:

Michael Peters said...

Hello Cassini,

Long time reader, first time poster.

Using your many helpful hints and tips I have created my own modified Elo ratings for the Premier league which I use with Poisson to try and find value. It's working well so far although it's early days and it needs refining.

I was looking to branch out into the other major European leagues and was wondering where you obtained your performance date (i.e. shots, shots on target etc) for the European leagues?

I want to be as consistent as possible (as I'm sure you know, the performance stats vary significantly between different sites)so ideally I would be able to find one website that provides all the data I need to ensure consistency.

Any suggestions you can give would be very much appreciated.

Michael