Saturday, 17 November 2012

Ton Twister

100 - But Starting To Wilt
Josh came back to explain his £50 bank comment, and had this to say:
Hi Cassini, thanks for your comments. Sorry about my ambiguity in my last comment, I should clarify that I have two separate banks; one for trading the outright markets, and another for what I like to call 'week to week' trading, it is just easier for me this way. I started with £50, but I do not top it up if it goes below that amount, nor do I take out winnings above that amount because, like you, I find that pointless. At times this season losses have meant my bank has sunk below £50, so when I mentioned training myself to control the bank I was referring to learning to deal with losses and react by lowering stake size in relation to the bank etc. Similarly, when the bank shows a profit, learning to slowly grow stakes progressively and proportionally while not getting carried away. I see now that I wasn't very clear here, so apologies for that! 
On the subject of age, I agree that immaturity is an issue and this is definitely something which I attempt to stunt. I do however feel that I have benefited from trading in ways which I wouldn't necessarily have otherwise. Being young I have little real responsibility but I am now a lot more adept at organising myself and controlling my money for instance, assets which I think otherwise I wouldn't have gained until later in life. You mentioned young people often have little patience, but I consider myself as having a lot of time to learn, meaning I am in no rush.

Sorry if this has been a bit waffly, but I thought I should clarify a few things I was vague about previously.
It is this blog that is prone to waffle, so it has been said, not any comments. If you stick with a stake that is around 2.5% of the bank, then as the bank fluctuates, so does the stake. Learning to deal with losses by lowering stake size is a question of setting up a simple spreadsheet and sticking to it. It all fits under the general category of "discipline".

An interesting aside that trading has benefited you in becoming more organised - again, discipline. I find the keeping of records invaluable in this regard, and as I have said before, I maintain spreadsheets for all variety of life's activities, and whether your goal is to lose weight, drink less, run or bike longer or faster, golf better, financial or whatever, seeing the truth in a spreadsheet is a dose of reality. The spreadsheet doesn't lie, at least it doesn't if you are honest with yourself. 

Speaking of which, my spreadsheet today reveals the sad truth that the Super Premium Charge is really hurting, as I suppose it is intended to do. (Sorry to mention this again Anonymous, but it's a topic that has recently become reality, and the full impact is still being dealt with). 

Anyway, one column I keep is the all-time (since records began on 1.Jan.2006) average net daily profit and since 17.Jan.2011 this has not dipped below £100. Until today.

At the time of writing, the average sits at £99.99. Ouch.

While £100 a day is not a goal, (it just so happens that my long-term daily average falls around this nice round number) it is a good number to measure performance against, and while in real terms the difference between a daily average of £99 and £100 isn't much, psychologically it is quite a blow. And that £99 is likely to continue to drop if I continue on Betfair. I should mention that this is just my net Betfair figure, and doesn't take into consideration my losses that are arbs, and profitable elsewhere, but after nearly seven years of keeping these records, this is the number I look at for reassurance after a poor run. 

It looks like the poll favours keeping the Friendly Tipster League going, so more work for Cassini who will be in the United States for the Thanksgiving holiday next week, and spending quality time with Mrs Cassini's family. Probably won't be celebrating the Election win though! Normal XX Draw service will continue although other investment activities will be somewhat limited, and so might waffling contributions to this blog. 

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