Tuesday 6 November 2012

Subjective Elective

I don't often bet on my own team's games, but tonight I am tempting fate and making an exception. I'm well aware of the dangers of trying to objectively analyse your own team's chances, but when a third place team on a roll hosts a struggling 24th placed team, you might expect the home team to be well odds-on, yet Crystal Palace are available at evens, or very close to evens.

After opening the season with three losses in August, it was looking far more likely that any change in status for Palace next season would be downwards, but September saw four wins and one draw, and October saw three wins and two draws. November started with a comfortable win over top six team Blackburn Rovers, and the team haven't missed a step despite the loss of manager Dougie Freedman.

I like the choice of Ian Holloway as his replacement. Whether or not it proves to be inspired remains to be seen, but he is proven at this level and for what it's worth, assistant Keith Millen is a Croydon boy who played for Palace as a youth. Anyway, while longer term Palace may struggle to hold on to some of their young talent, they will be on the field tonight and I'm quite baffled as to why they are so generously priced against a bottom of the table Ipswich Town.

After four consecutive losses, Ipswich did have an away win at lowly Birmingham City on Saturday, and also have a fairly new boss at the helm in Mick McCarthy, but in their two matches away to top six sides, Ipswich have lost both. They also lost 6-0 to Ian Holloway's Blackpool. Ipswich have scored in 5 of 7 away games, and Palace have scored in every game this season, and while I don't have ratings for this league, the Overs might be of interest. I'm thinking that whatever the outcome at Selhurst Park tonight, it's hard to argue that a back of Crystal Palace is anything but value. But I am admittedly biased, so don't go crazy.

Decision day in the United States today, and with President Obama 1.27 to keep his job, I am cautiously optimistic that my back at 1.47 will be a winner. That the UK media keep calling this a 'toss-up' or 'cliffhanger' election really is lazy journalism. Anyone who read my piece at Betting Expert 'penned' back in September will understand that the votes in the majority of states don't count. Well, they do, but they are irrelevant when deciding the next President. Those states are done deals. It's only the 'swing states' that matter, and while Florida and North Carolina may go to Romney, key state Ohio is leaning more to Obama, as is every other swing state. Individual poll numbers are always suspect, but for every poll to be wrong, now that would be quite something. Romney had better start praying, but I have it on good authority that that may not be enough to help him.


Average Guy said...

Hey Cassini, do you live near Croydon ? I used to work in a pub in Carshalton (The Butterchurn) that was full of Palace supporters in the 80's, where you from to support Place ?

Average Guy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
gundulf said...

The only reason I can think of that would cause Palace's odds to be so high is a (mis-placed?) optimism caused by the appointment of McCarthy at Ipswich.

It's an interesting match with two new appointments going head to head, and 'too close to call' for me to get involved in Match Odds. Goals and / or Correct Score probably offer better options.

A cheap shot, but has the appointment of a new Bald Headed Eagle at Selhurst Park any bearing on the Presidential Election, I wonder?