Friday, 2 November 2012

Setting Sail, The Cassini Way

It was very pleasing to receive a comment from Fizzer555 who wrote:

Your blog encouraged me to have my first NBA in-running bet yesterday (and the 1 hour less time difference helped as well). Followed the ‘Cassini Way’ and laid Cleveland at 1.06 and minutes later was able to back them at 1.7.
If only it was always like this!
I sometimes think that the advice I give out goes in one eye and out the other, or something like that, so it was great to hear that sometimes my posts are acted upon and others make some money from the words of wisdom contained therein. I personally prefer the spelling to be ‘layed’ rather than ‘laid’ when it comes to betting, but Mrs. Cassini loved the reference to the “Cassini Way” and thinks it would make a great title for my next book.

In addition to my suggestion that the Lakers shouldn’t be favourites at Portland on Wednesday night (they were, and they lost by 10, and I hope many of you profited handsomely), there were more examples of teams trading low and losing. Detroit Pistons went as low as 1.1 versus the Houston Rockets before losing by 9, and the Phoenix Suns went to 1.13 before losing to the Golden State Warriors by 2. There may well have been others, but on busy NBA nights you can’t follow them all unfortunately.

The US Presidential bet looks ever more sharp, with Obama now storming down to 1.34 and just a few days to go. I hope Little Al managed to cut his losses.

Al thinks I am a wee bit harsh on Romney and his disdain for helping those less fortunate than himself, which is most people, come to think of it. Al thinks that by criticizing Romney’s suggestion that it is “immoral for the victims of natural disasters to receive help from the government”, i.e. everyone chips in a little to help out, I am being harsh. Presumably Romney and possibly Al, feel that such disasters are god’s way of expressing his wrath and that mere mortals shouldn’t interfere, and when you believe the sheer nonsense that Romney believes, it’s not such a stretch to think that. Jerusalem and Missouri indeed. It would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad and dangerous. His beliefs are absolutely barking mad, and he's in with a (small) chance of being the next President of the most powerful nation on Earth. God help us! (That was a joke).

Al says: “Romney is just advocating more personal responsibility – I know this is a hard concept to many”

Yes indeed. In fact when I read about those twenty babies in neonatal intensive care who had to be evacuated in New York City, my first thought was “How irresponsible of them to choose to be born in that place at that time. What were they thinking?” I hope their names have been taken, so that they can pay back the money it cost to move them as soon as they start earning. And the sick and elderly who were evacuated – I mean why get sick for a start, and why in some backwater place like New York or New Jersey? In the middle of a storm! Go and live somewhere safe, like New Orleans for crying out loud.

The point is, whether it is emergency aid for natural (not supernatural) disasters, or help for individuals who don’t choose to get seriously ill, but nevertheless do, a decent society should help those people. It’s all very well being rich and healthy and telling people to take responsibility, but it’s cruel for a start, and it’s illogical – it misses the rather key point that many things in life are the result of happenstance, not choice.

It speaks volumes that Romney doesn’t want to talk about his views on FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) a few days before the election, and if a god sent the Hurricane / Troical / Super storm Sandy to hit the US to ensure Obama’s re-election, oh the irony. That would probably rule out the ‘one true god’ being the Mormon one then, although that was always something of a long shot, even if South Park declared him the winner in a famous episode.

In addition to focusing attention on Romney’s spiteful attitude to federal assistance of any kind, including natural disasters, the storm also gave New Jersey Governor’s Chris Christie an opportunity to kick-start his 2016 Presidential run. At least that is my opinion, as he exchanges compliments with president Obama, and perhaps accepts that the Romney team he was supporting is falling further behind with only a few days left. If you follow these things closely, it was also interesting that at the Republican National Convention, it took Governor Christie a full 15 minutes to mention Romney’s name during his keynote speech. And of course, being able to remind the electorate of your bi-partisanship in four years time won’t hurt, but perhaps I am being too cynical.

Perhaps I am getting a little too far away from sports and betting too, but religion and politics do make for interesting conversation and anyone who adheres to the old adage that they shouldn’t be discussed at social gatherings is missing out on a lot of fun.

So back to our real purpose here, and I read an interesting post by Webbo of Betfair Banter on the subject of Why Draws Are Best. Check it out, but it backs up my opinion, which is in turn supported by evidential data from over 4,000 matches, that the draw is the punter’s best friend.

He concludes with:
So if you want to bet on a premier league match but are not sure where the value lies, go for the draw. If you don't see a draw happening then back the home team as the away team are likely to be the poorest value selection.
Maybe I’ve been living in a cave for many years, but I don’t recall having heard the saying: “If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.” before reading Eddie's A Bit More LTD on a  Football Trader's Path on Wednesday, but in typical fashion, I came across it again today. It’s a quote from Abraham Harold Maslow who I had never previously heard of to be quite honest, but he was (he’s in heaven now):
“...a psychologist who is most well known for his concept of the Hierarchy of Needs. Everyone tends to climb the Hierarchy as more basic needs are met. The basic levels of need are:
Physiological: Food, water, sex, sleep etc.
Safety: Security of body, employment, resources etc.
Love and Belonging: Friendship, family, sexual intimacy etc.
Esteem: Self esteem, achievement, respect etc.
Self Actualization: Morality, creativity, problem solving, lack of prejudice etc.”
Adam Heathcote is still working on level one (hydration), while I am busily working on my low self-esteem and securing my body. 

Anyway, the post on the Lay The Draw strategy, or modified versions of it, is worth a read. I like the opening suggestion from a Puppyguts who writes: 
if you were going to LTD at HT why not wait until the 60-70 min? if a goal is scored early in the 2nd half the profit you gain is rarely satisfying, so why bother? there is nothing worse than firing off a draw lay at HT them having to witness the odds tank 10 mins later. overall you would probably make a better profit backing the draw and laying it off instead.
"The profit you gain is rarely satisfying". That's a strange thing to write. Profits from a well-researched and implemented strategy are always satisfying, profits from random punts not so much. 
Lay the draw at half-time is often suggested as a winning idea, but it will only work if the price is value, and why should it be? So far as profits go, a strike rate of 50% at 2.0 is very much like a strike rate of 10% at 10.0 and unless there is a reason why the price at 60 or 70 minutes is wrong, it makes no sense to wait until this time. Do the ‘inventors’ of these systems not understand how markets work? They don't take an efficiency break for minutes at a time. 

Last night's Lay The Chargers At HT strategy didn't quite work out, but the price did move to 1.3+ so a relatively small profit was made, but I rather had my eyes on a bigger prize, which I was looking forward to splitting with the Betfair shareholders. Unfortunately the Chiefs are not exactly any good this season, and just collapsed as the game went on, so the Cassini Dividend will be trimmed.
Lay The Chargers At HT Strategy
For XX Draw Subscribers, the selections have been mailed out, and are also available at : http://www.xxdraws.com/xx-draw-selections-2012-13.php - please let me know if you have any problems.

And I shall end this perspirational piece (that means it was hard work) with another quote
“When defeat comes, accept it as a signal that your plans are not sound, rebuild those plans, and set sail once more toward your coveted goal.” - Napoleon Hill (Think And Grow Rich)

1 comment:

AL said...

Not long to go to find out if you are right and the Welfare party will win. Although as Stalin said once, it's not who votes that count, but who counts the votes. In this case you will find it is republican s who own the companies. ..