Wednesday, 31 October 2012

Just 1,317 To Go

One Classic XX Draw selection last night, which was the 2-2 draw between Palermo and AC Milan. The draw was good - the four goals not so good, at least for anyone also backing the Unders, and a 45th minute goal snatched a win from the HT00 market too.

I was going to say that I missed the COCUp matches for better opportunities later in the NBA, but when games end 5-7 and teams throw away 4-0 leads, I guess there were opportunities galore in the football too.

The opening game of the new NBA season saw exactly the movement in price that I have mentioned ad nauseum.  Here's the chart for the Cleveland Cavaliers at the end of their game against the Washington Wizards:

Cavaliers Roller-Coaster Ride
Lay in the 1.0s and you won't go far wrong. Unfortunately not EVERY game goes this well, but there are 1,230 games in a regular season and some go even better than this, with the 1.0x team going on to lose.

The third game of the night was the overrated Los Angeles Lakers versus the Dallas Mavericks, missing Dirk Nowitzki. Kobe Bryant did play, but the Lakers were always too short in my opinion. After losing all 8 pre-season games, they started off ok, not great, but there was never a reason to back them and they went as low as 1.17.

 At half-time, the Lakers trailed by two points and were out to 1.4, before playing even worse and losing to a solid Dallas team by 8 points, 99-91. After dipping my toes in earlier, I finally took the plunge in the third quarter:

Third Quarter
A nice start to the season, and if you read my NBA preview over at Betting Expert like I told you, and made some money, remember who your friends are. And the best of it is, it happens all the time (well, quite often).

Dallas play again tonight, at Utah who can score in a hurry, as do the Lakers who now travel to Portland and this could be a game to watch for opportunities in. Portland were 60% at home last season, and the Lakers were 45% on the road, and they are playing back-to-back with a dodgy Kobe, an ageing Steve Nash, and a Dwight Howard who hit just 3 of 14 free throws. Favourites?

LayThatDraw asked: "How does one go about watching live NBA in the UK. Must one purchase League Pass on If so, how delayed are the pictures?" A quick search on the Internet for something like "celtics @ heat live stream" will usually give you several options, although some may require a little technical jiggery-pokery before they will work. Nothing that a sharp mind can't figure out. The scoreboard appears to update very fast, and you can usually see from the numbers how far behind your pictures are. I find it less of an issue than with tennis (with no betting in the USA the court-sider problem doesn't exist) and unlike tennis, the prices tend not to move so much on a big play unless it's late in the game. It goes without saying to take care, especially late on, but the rewards far exceed the risks once you know what you are doing.

The United 'fan' replied to my post yesterday, missing the point that my 'blinkered' comment referred to our friend's view of the game. Posting the thoughts of another doesn't, in any way, erase the writer's own opinion which I say again, was blinkered. If I were to say that Romney's suggestion that it's immoral for the government to help those affected by a natural disaster is a disgrace, posting a comment by someone else - let's call him Al - saying "actually, I think Romney's right" in no way reflects a change in my opinion, merely a concession that others may think differently.

The United 'fan' also misses the point that I was drawing attention to the comment that the game was overshadowed by the 'amount of fuss' - his quote, with which I opened yesterday's post was:
"For me the game was overshadowed by the amount of fuss made about refereeing decisions"
But now it has become -
Was the game not overshadowed by the refereeing decisions then?
Quite a difference.

Incidentally, back to Romney, and strange how he doesn't seem to be following up his June 2011 opinion when it comes to Hurricane Sandy. I wonder why? Surely the hypocrite isn't being influenced by the Election less than a week away? The market seems to think so, with Obama down to 1.42 / 1.43. With time running out, I'm certainly not looking to lay off any time soon. The respected 538 blog now has Obama with a 77.4% probability of winning (1.29). Get some of that 1.43 while you still can.

In the only states that matter, Romney currently leads in just one - North Carolina. Florida was leaning Romney's way, but the latest poll has Obama leading. Prone to hurricanes, perhaps Floridians have woken up to the fact that  Romney is not a man fit for the White House, and that's apart from his nutty cult views, something else he has kept very quiet about during the campaign. Hard to take someone seriously when they actually believe Jesus visited America, (have they no idea how hard it is to get a Green Card?) and that he was born of a "physical" relationship between Mary and God (i.e. there was no virgin birth!) - gasp - now that really is a ridiculous belief.

It was interesting to see that recent polls in the UK and Germany both showed 90%+ support for Obama. What a shame that only Americans get to vote in the US Presidential Election. Credit to Chris Christie for rising above politics for once and calling it like it is. Should the unthinkable happen, and Romney win the election, I think we can expect Christie not to be given a cabinet position!
"I am not going to play politics with this issue, this is so much bigger than an election," reiterates Christie. "When someone asks me an honest question, I give an honest answer: 'How's the president been to deal with?' He's been outstanding to deal with on this. And I look forward to seeing him tomorrow so he can see for himself, what this hurricane has done to my state."

4 comments: said...

the "fan" says

It must really be hard being so right all of the time

The "fan" says yet again you have used selective quotes to argue the case but the "fan" isnt really surprised as the "fan" notes that you have previous for this.

of course Im blinkered Im a "fan"


Tony said...

"let's call him Al" - that made me chuckle

fizzer555 said...

Hi Cassini,

Your blog encouraged me to have my first NBA in-running bet yesterday (and the 1 hour less time difference helped as well). Followed the 'Cassini Way' and laid Cleveland at 1.06 and minutes later was able to back them at 1.7.

If only it was always like this!


AL said...


Which AL? Big or Little?

Bit harsh on Romney, it is not as if the FEMA has a good track record in assisting people - just look at how useless they were after Hurricane Katrina.

Romney is just advocating more personal responsibility - i know its a hard concept to many.

Let's not forget that this is only a Cat 1 storm - or otherwise known as a gust of wind in Ireland..