Tuesday 16 October 2012

Peyton's Place

Another example of why the NFL is the second best trading sport in the world. The final game of Week 6 saw the San Diego Chargers trade at 1.06 before the second half had even begun. Perhaps not surprising since they held a 24-0 lead at home, and only five teams in NFL history had ever overcome such a big deficit on the road. But the Chargers are notoriously good at giving away apparent victories, (think back no further than last week), the Broncos had the ball first in the second half, the Broncos have reduced deficits in three games this season already, and so a lay of the Chargers seemed like a good idea. Did I mention that the Broncos have a certain Peyton Manning? Once again, as I wrote in my recent Peaking Early post psychology plays a big part in some of these in-play decisions. 24 points is a big lead, but again, it was possibly too early in the game. Chargers players start to lose focus, and just want the second half to be over, while the Broncos have nothing to lose. Anyone who has played sport knows the feeling.
And so the lay turned out not to be my worst idea ever. Cassini's not as stupid as he looks (which was a great relief to my Mother, I am pleased to report). The Denver Broncos became the sixth team in NFL history to win on the road after trailing by 24 points or more, and won the second half 35-0. It was also TV's Monday Night Football show's biggest ever comeback I believe.

While I don't disagree that 1.06 can be value, I just can't understand who the people are who are prepared to back at such prices with so long to go in a game. Long may they continue to do so though. The best case scenario is you win 6 for your 100. Nothing wrong with that, but the downside, to my mind, far exceeds the upside in these situations. Breaks change things, and anyone thinking the first half momentum would continue is naïve to say the least. The Chargers head into a bye week, and this game is not one they will want to dwell on for thirteen days.

It seems that the Super Premium Charge kicked in a week later than I thought. Looking at the portal, the old 20% has gone, with that depressing red tick now hitting at 50%. I'd better find some losers for the rest of the week!

The game clashed with the baseball, so I missed out on a rare Giants post-season home win as they tied their series with the Cardinals, which at least guarantees another game in that series, but I think I made the right choice. The Giants never trailed, and I like some volatility in my trading.

Other teams coming off a bye week are the top football teams in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.   While I love the finals of the World Cup or the Euros, I really can't get too enthusiastic about the early qualifying games. This time next year I might pay a little more attention.     


Mark Iverson said...

Excellent result - fair play

TradeShark said...

I always have 2-3% Total charge and can't do nothing.