Tuesday, 2 October 2012

Beware The Ides Of Iverson

The curse of Iverson struck again in September, as my Ryder Cup trading was pretty hopeless really, and ended in a four figure loss. Since highlighting the illogic of trading an event differently based on calendar date, my end of month numbers have been poor. July was decent with the last three days adding £1,794 to the pot, but the last three days of August and September have seen losses of £1,356 and £1,491 respectively.

All three months did at least end in the green, but maybe there is something in this month end thing! This was to be my last week of standard Premium Charge too, and I'm really not sure if the Ryder Cup losses count to this week or will offset next week's profits. (Notice the optimistic attitude there).

The good news is that the next Ryder Cup is two years away, at Gleneagles, but the bad news is that the final day is on the 28th September, well within 'end of month' range.

A few comments on my last post, and 500-5000 wondered:
Don't you think you've gone overboard with that number of jokes?
Honestly, yes, but Romney is such a big joke, that the jokes just keep coming.

Al's experience of living in the USA appears somewhat limited. He writes:
I think we get that you love Obama and hate Romney!!
I think Gary Johnson would be a better candidate.
I only put the joke about Obama as i assumed you were joking regarding your claims towards Obama's achievements, which i guess now that you weren't!
I could refute all your claims but i don't want to expend the energy. I am just surprised that someone who is clearly intelligent would be so brainwashed and cheer lead socialism. Ronald Regan's A Time for Choosing speech would be a good start for you.
47% of the population dependent on welfare is not a success!
I don't hate Romney at all. It's not personal, but I am thankful that he is the Republican nominee, because he is simply unelectable.

Gary Johnson is already a Presidential candidate - he is the Libertarian Party nominee.

Ronald Reagan's speech was almost 50 years ago during the Goldwater campaign - how did that work out?

As the 2012 campaign ads say, D is for Drive forward, R is for Reverse.

47% dependent on welfare? You have been watching too much Fox News Mr. Al -try 8%, or are you including Social Security and Medicare as 'welfare'?
The number stated that receive any portion of their support from from welfare assistance--including food stamps--it is 29,900,000 or roughly 8% of the total population in the United States.
Gundulf picked up on my statement that "A lay of Manchester United was big value (I had them at 1.99) but did I lay them? Did I 'eck. This was one of those games where my numbers appeared so far off that it seemed prudent to leave well alone." saying:
It's nice to see that even the great Cassini occasionally suffers from letting opinion get in the way of a value bet! I thought it was just me :-)
The saying that "when something looks too good to be true, it probably is" generally serves one well, but on this occasion I was too cautious. 

I mentioned in my last post that the rather clueless Sports Gambling Ace had Tweeted that "Liverpool are due a win and at 8/11 that's worthwhile".  My polite reply that thinking a win "is due" is known as Gambler's Fallacy seems to have ruffled some feathers.

Here's the rather amusing exchange for anyone who may have missed it [with my comments in brackets]:

SGA: To lazy to type stats but look at the outcome [Too lazy to learn English judging by the spelling]

Cassini: One result proves nothing. It's called Gambler's Fallacy. Look it up if you're not too lazy. [Fact]

SGA: I know what it is don't be trying to promote another stupid tips website by shiting about gamblers fallacy. [Excuse me? - Can anyone see a 'stupid tips website' being promoted anywhere here? What shiting means, I'm not sure. Perhaps just shity spelling?]
Cassini: Look it up and understand it then. There is no such thing as being "due a win" when it comes to betting. Gambler's Fallacy. [Fact]

SGA: I give up with you and your website promoting. [If only, but again, what promoting? ]

Cassini: OK. My life will never be the same again, but I shall always treasure this conversation. Good luck. I feel you'll need it. [A heartfelt and genuine reply].

SGA (more than 24 hours later, and late in the evening) I see another one of these guys trying to make money selling tips or starting a blog is trying to smear my name just cause he cant gamble. [Starting a blog? Can't gamble? Smear his name? Good grief. Talk about over-reacting. Presumably he is unaware of what number post this is - it is 1428, and the blog I am just 'starting' saw its first post on March 21st, 2008. Can't gamble? Anyone can gamble, but presumably SGA means gamble successfully. Well, success is relative, but I don't think I do too bad overall. Apparently SGA has never actually read the blog].

SGA (about 2 minutes later - too much beer anyone?) That fella @calciocassini apparently wants everbody who talks about sport to state all the stats on ther pick .Why WEBSITEPROMOTING : AVOID: [Now if anyone can spot where I ever said anything about every body who talks about sport or stats or picks or promoting any web site, please let me know. The guy may well not be English, so I shall say no more about his spelling or grammar, but one wonders why he continues to follow me on Twitter? 

There is an Unfollow button that is pretty obvious, but perhaps he spends too much time on the Plenty Of Fish website, where a gamble1212 has a lot to say over there too! Could be a coincidence of course.]

Rather than Unfollow me though, which would put me about 13 behind him in follower count, I would like to start including his selections in the FTL. He did spot a great bet last week in the League Cup match West Ham United v Wigan Athletic, and backed it up with solid reasoning, so why the comment that "due for a win" wasn't a good reason upset him so much is a little odd.

As a reminder, all tips on this blog are free, and they are all worth every penny!  

Back to business, and the latest Friendly Tipster League Table is posted over at Gold All Over (access is free) following last night's Queens Park Rangers v West Ham United game.  Unfortunately, overall, it was another down weekend if you followed everyone.


Mark Iverson said...

Against my better judgement I looked up my monthly split %'s since I started keeping daily records in April 2008. The results?

Days 1-10 = 30.34% of profits
Days 11-20 = 35.55%
Days 21-end = 34.11%

The question is, does my more relaxed approach at the end of the month make me more, make me less or does it make no difference at all?

AL said...

Uh oh! more roadkill.. this time Gambling Ace!!

Perhaps Ace got Cass mixed up with Rick Ford who is back with a new post!

G said...

Cassini - hope this reaches you in time for the early CL game & 5pm tonight.
Key stat: Celtic have lost 19 of their last 20 CL away games-surely a "Due a Win" team if ever there was one.Currently 6.6 on Betfair - Fill yer boots,All in et al.
WAIT!STOP!! Just noticed Spartak Moscow have only won 1 in 12 CL matches(they must be "Due a Win" as well - what to do now..............
Got it - LAY THE DRAW!!! must win bet - i think - this system is so confusing for me.
Back to the drawing board..................LOL

Henke said...

Hey all,

Sorry if I am digressing a little bit, but I've recently found out about this blog and I really like it. However as I am quite new to Betfair, sometimes the jargon keeps me confused. For instance I was just wondering what do you guys mean by point profits, i.e, when you talk that "this strategy has made 13.5 point profits"

jojopig.com said...

Thanks for the posts. great read.