Sunday, 28 October 2012

Draw Power

It's been an interesting week, my best in a long time, and not to tempt fate, but October is looking like it will be my best month since May of 2012, despite the Super Premium Charge.

Or because of it?

As I've mentioned before, the higher 'tax rate' is strangely liberating. Lose £500 and I'd have 'lost' half of it anyway. The net result is a week of accepting more risk, less value than I usually look for, and a volatile week with four-figure swings on four of the last seven days, three up, and one down. It's all good though. I keep checking in at BETDAQ, but for the markets I need, they are frankly either non-existent or useless.

Some NFL games today, and the start of the NBA season next week will only help matters. Here's a quick look at Saturday's football matches.

The opening game of the weekend was Aston Villa v Norwich City, and I had Aston Villa at 1.87 for this, and was on at 2.1. After the red card, it seemed like a good idea to lay off, and reduce the liability to little more than zero, but I should have gone a step further as Norwich completely dominated the second half.

Joy for Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster, despair for Neil who had selected Aston Villa and Premier Edge who had the Over 2.5 goals, and for me, 90 minutes of my life wasted.

Drawmaster selections went 3 from 3 for the second time in the last three rounds, and are now shooting up the FTL table. One of them was an absolute fluke of course, the 3-3 Reading v Fulham game. The other draw was Stoke City v Sunderland.

Lest anyone need an example of the random fluctuations we often find, Peter has had 26 selections to date this season. Of the first 13, he had just one winner. Of the next 13 he has had 8 winners, and 7 from the last 9, going from a low of -10.4 points on 23 September to a current +5.81 points. Getting hot on draws can do that for a system, another reason to love them.

My own XX Draws had a pretty good day too. Four selections including the one Bundesliga, (Greuther Furth v Werder Bremen 1-1), with three winners and the other finishing 1-0 (Real Betis v Valencia).

While I had a perfect draw in the Espanyol v Malaga (Classic) game, I was probably proudest of the Reading v Fulham 3-3 draw which was a brilliant selection owing absolutely nothing to chance, and everything to the unique algorithms of my spreadsheet, finely tuned and engineered after a close study of 4,025 matches.

OK, I lie. As I've said before, I'll take the win, but 3-3 score-lines are honestly not what I am looking for. Of 1,323 Classic, Extended and Bundesliga matches, just 10 have ended 3-3 - (IP 0.0076, 132.3)  And as for how to record the situation after 80 minutes... losing, winning, losing, win. Six goals is usually a nightmare, but this was a nightmare with a happy ending.

I have four more selections today, and a few others have Sunday action too, so I'll do a full write up on the weekend when those are complete. Looking ahead though, the three games in the EPL that have attracted attention are:

Everton v Liverpool

Neil (+1.2, +4.6%) has the draw, while Premier Edge (-4.38, -11.2%) goes for 2 or 3 goals total.

Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur

Tony (-2.84,  -7.3%) is laying Tottenham, while Football Formbook (-3.6, -30%) is backing Tottenham.

Chelsea v Manchester United

Jon (Talkbet) (-9.25, -23.7%) goes for the draw, as does Neil (+1.2, +4.6%). Football Formbook (-3.6, -30%) go for a Chelsea win.

Since no one has said anything about the Newcastle United v West Bromwich Albion game, it must be because everyone thinks the prices are about right. At 2.03, I actually have Newcastle looking rather short myself, with my numbers suggesting 2.37 as correct and to me, there is value on the Unders, with the 2.5 market at 2.09.

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