Thursday, 25 October 2012

Hold Or Fold

Tony wrote:

On the flip side, how many games were 1 down, 2 down etc at 81mins but went on to finish a draw? [Don't know, but it happens!]
How many were a draw at 81mins and went on to finish a draw? [243 of 277 - 87.7%, IP 1.14]
If you only lay winning bets at 81mins but don't lay losing bets at 81mins then to me you are only cutting profits, or increasing your losses on a system that is not profitable to start with. [Agree totally]

It always amazes me how many people put bets on, whether singles or accumulators and want to lay bets off with x number of mins left or 1 leg to go on an accumulator that doesn't kick off until 4pm the following day. Yet the same people never lay the bet off 3 legs into a 6 team acca when the 3rd team is getting beat 1-0 at half- time. [Preaching to the choir]
The time-decay idea seems flawed to me too, which is why, for football, I typically punt rather than trade.
and my exit point is where exactly?
Gundulf returned, to make an amazing confession. He doesn't avidly study the FTL table. Seriously? Not only that, but he feels it doesn't take up enough of my time already.
Thanks for the answer, Cassini. I don't profess to avidly studying the FTL - but it does seem that late goals feature frequently in your write ups! Perhaps that's an illusion, and, as Tony rightly points out they can cause as well as wreck a draw!
I'd love to see the draw at 1.14 at 80 minutes... but reckon it doesn't usually hit that price until nearer, or beyond, 90 minutes.
The FTL table doesn't show the Strike Rate for the various combatants, and I'm not mathematically adept enough to work it out from the figures given (don't even know if that's possible!) - worth another column in the spreadie?
I think the reason that they appear to feature so frequently is because they are so darned annoying! It's the nature of football that the merits of the final result very much depend on how that score was arrived at. For example, without knowing any details, you might consider that a 1-1 draw between a lower placed home team and a slightly higher placed away team might be a result both teams would be content with, but if one team scored in the opening minute and led until conceding a 94th minute penalty, you can guess that one team would be a lot happier with the final result that the other. That's why the late goals that take away the 'apparent' victory are so painful. Human nature.

I certainly have the strike rate for most of the competitors, but not for those (Premier Edge and Griff's / Over Unders) who hit me with up to 13 selections in a weekend, where I simply record the total P&L. Premier Edge probably have this data available if they would like to hand it over! Strike Rate is not exactly meaningful when comparing different types of bets, but it's easy enough to add, so look for it from next week.


BigAl said...

I'm slightly confused about this 34 out of 277 stat.

What exactly are you saying has happened 34 times, and what is this 277 sample?

I've quite possibly completely misunderstood it but you seem to be suggesting that you would hope to lay the draw at 1.14 after 80 minutes which is an absurd expectation. Very roughly, I would expect 70-75% of games to finish in draws if level after 80-81 mins.

Do you actually mean that from a sample of 277, a number "X" have been draws after 80 minutes, of which 34 have not ended in draws? In which case the implied probability of a "non-draw" is 34/X? Rather than 34/277

fedslam said...

I can get youthe strike rate for our different markets yes, i'll email them to you.