Sunday, 21 October 2012

Red Faces

After what seems like forever, the top European leagues were back in action this weekend, with the usual mixed fortunes for the Friendly Tipster League entrants.

Reviewing the table in top down sequence as of last week, we'll start with the Extended XX Draw selections. After 13 winners from 17 selections in late September, the Half-Time 0-0 winners stopped abruptly, and they then went 17 matches without a single winner. The rot stopped with Palermo v Torino (a perfect draw) and the good news was that the first half goals didn't prevent the Extended selections overall from finding five draws from eight selections this weekend.

There were two Bundesliga selctions, Werder Bremen v Moenchengladbach ended 4-0, which is about as bad as it gets, and Hamburg v Stuttgart which finished 0-1 for a profit overall, but losses on the Match Odds and HT0-0 markets.

Premier Betting had a poor weekend with neither selection paying off. Wigan Athletic failed to win either half at Swansea City, and Arsenal couldn't score in either half - never mind both halves, as was the selection.

Neil's selections showed a small profit, finding the draw in the Sunderland v Newcastle United match, which more than offset the selections of the Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea draw and Everton to win at Queens Park Rangers.

Tony's Away Lays saw five selections, one winner (the lay of Arsenal) but a loss on the weekend and dropping into the red.

Premier Edge had as bad a Saturday as it gets, with four losses from four selections, but as tends to happen, on Sunday he found two winners from two - Both Teams To Score at Sunderland, and the Under 2.5 at QPR v Everton. Overall a loss though, and Premier Edge drop below the break-even line too.

CKL Selections also dropped into the red with a couple of midweek World Cup Qualifier losses, although the weekend selections reduced the loss slightly.

Little Al went for three outside draw bets, but Liverpool beat Reading, Manchester United beat Stoke City and Norwich City beat Arsenal so he remains in minus territory.

Football Elite had three recommended bets, all Draw No Bets, and Ajaccio v Bastia finished just that. Genoa v Roma was the second pick of the weekend, and  This game was also an Extended draw pick, but with the U 1.5 market trading at 7.0, it probably shouldn't have been! The market expected goals, and got them, with more in the first half than in any other Serie A game today. Genoa led 2-0, before losing 2-4. The third selection was Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid, another XX Draw selection (Classic this time) and a painful loss on this one as Atletico scored in the 89'.

Another profitable weekend for Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster selections, with one of three (Sunderland  Newcastle United) ensuring a small profit, and down but only a small amount after a bad start to the season.

The Free Under / Over picks found two losers this weekend, both selections were Over 2.5, and were Fulham v Aston Villa (1-0) and Ajaccio v Bastia (0-0).

The XX Draw (Classic) selections were profitable, with Queens Park Rangers v Everton finishing 1-1 after a game with a deflected (and very early) goal, an own goal, and a sending off. The second selection was Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid which I mentioned before, but a 0-1 result did at least mean profits in all but the Match Odds draw market.

Football Formbook had one winner and two losses for an overall loss, and Jon (Talkbet) lost half a point on the weekend.

Backing Ian Erskine's 'Lay The Draw' selections continues to be a poor strategy which perhaps serves us right, and in the last two spots in the table is Griff, who failed to turn in his entries this weekend, but at leasts treads water.

Of the 29 categories, only eight are in profit, four of which are the XX Extended selections, which all suggests that finding an edge in football is not as easy as it might seem. Nine categories are showing a loss of less than 15% on ROI, and six are less than 3 points down, so all is not lost, but it's becoming more and more obvious that there are easier ways to make money betting than football.

The professional services are now in the red on the season, with Premier Betting up 3.95 points despite a bad weekend, but Football Elite down 4.15 points and on as long a losing run (6) as I can remember.

One curious anomaly is that backing the Under 1.5 goals market for the Extended picks is down 7.81 points,  significantly out of sync with the other markets for these selections. The U2.5 is up 11.4 points, and the U3.5 is up 5.55 so we must be due a few 1-0s or 0-1s for these selections!

The table is below - please bring any omissions or errors to my attention. Weekends get a little hectic, and mistakes may happen.

2 comments:

Chris Little said...

Good update, must take you a while to process all the results although probably a little more fun when the table is screaming out that the XX draws service is currently beating all comers. Still it's a long season so there is still hope for the rest of us...

Cheers,
Chris (http://cklfootballtips.blogspot.co.uk/)

Henke said...

One of the problems I see is that most of the people are only inclined towards the major leagues. Like the premiership, most of the time it is harder to draw conclusions than say, even compared to the Bundesliga. My tip would be to select a niche "not-so-much-popular" league, focus and follow it for a whole season seeing what you could get away with. For instance the Dutch League, the 2nd Dutch League, the Scandinavian Leagues, the Turkish league might be a better value, as the odds are usually slightly higher for favourites (especially in scandinavia). Obviously they are harder to guess, but as I said a focus on a niche market rather than playing just for the major leagues, especially the Premiership, might perhaps be a good idea. At least for experimenting to see what you could get.

Moreover I always believe there is quite a lot of money to be made especially on UEFA cup due to differences in league qualities. Although last round was a bit weird, playing handicapped for the favourite might be good idea. As said, experiments on that could be made.

Cheers