Sunday, 7 October 2012

Debate Hanky Panky

This is my first week of the Super Premium Charge, or PC3 or whatever it is known as, and enthusiasm has been somewhat diminished. Honestly, it's not all down to the Premium Charge. Last week / month ended with a disappointing loss on the Ryder Cup, and the week has coincided with the end of the regular baseball season, with most games seeing very little in the way of liquidity. Hardly surprising as many games were meaningless, and commitment in such circumstances is always a concern. The good news is that the Wild Card games showed that play-off liquidity is looking pretty strong.

Last night was an example that you don't always need liquidity to make a profit. The WNBA play-offs are also in progress right now, and while this might sound a little cruel, it certainly seems as if there are some traders getting involved these matches, who have never seen a WNBA game before. When a big home  favourite in basketball starts poorly, the market initially resists reacting too much, but if the road (away / visiting) team keeps the lead, obviously at some point, the resistance collapses, and their price shortens. The trick is knowing when this resistance will collapse, but it certainly isn't mid-way through the second quarter when the lead is just ten. A three point play, a stop, and another basket, and all the momentum is back with the home team.

As I have written before, basketball is very much a game of momentum, and with the ability to call time-outs, and the advantage of playing at home, a small deficit at home with plenty of time remaining is not a cause for concern. Keep an eye on foul trouble and injuries to key players of course, but in general this knowledge will serve you well.

Not a great day for the XX Draws, with the one Classic selection West Ham United v Arsenal going the way of the visitors 3-1, and while I did fluke a 2-2 Extended Draws selection (Wigan Athletic v Everton), not even the HT 0-0 markets helped me today with a new longest losing sequence of six and counting.

A nice winning triple for Premier Betting though, who had Both Teams To Score in the West Bromwich Albion v Queens Park Rangers game (3-1), Arsenal to win at West Ham (see above) and the Over 2.5 goals in this match (see above and above). Pete also found two winning Draws in his Drawmaster selections, the game at Wigan, plus another 2-2 - Swansea City v Reading. Tomorrow's selection is Liverpool v Stoke City.

Not such a good day for the other professional entrant Football Elite, who had Sochaux v  Rennes (0-1), a game I had as an Extended draw. 

Tony's Away Lays are all in action tomorrow, and they are Manchester United, Borussia Dortmund, Lazio and Juventus, while Neil's selections are also playing tomorrow and he has the draw Southampton v Aston Villa plus lays of Liverpool and Manchester United. 

Henke left a comment, or a question really, which was:
Sorry if I am digressing a little bit, but I've recently found out about this blog and I really like it.
However as I am quite new to Betfair, sometimes the jargon keeps me confused. For instance I was just wondering what do you guys mean by point profits, i.e, when you talk that "this strategy has made 13.5 point profits"
Using points as a measure of the merit, or not, of betting selections means that different approaches can be directly compared. A 100 bet on a 1.1 selection winning 10 doesn't mean that 1.1 was better than a 3.0 selection that someone had 20p on. By keeping the bet size consistent (one point) it is easy to see which systems or methods are profitable. In the real world, one point might be 1 to one person, 1,000 to another, but by sticking to one point each time, we can compare apples to apples - or lemons to lemons!

A couple of emails were also received after the first Obama v Romney debate. Worth watching the link, and bear in mind that debate rules say "No props, notes, charts, diagrams, or other writings or other tangible things may be brought into the debate by any candidate.
What next? Doves? Gold Plates?
It pains me to agree that Romney came out of it looking, on the face of it, as the slight 'winner', but Obama, in my opinion, was far too soft on him, perhaps wishing to appear the more presidential, and stay above the fray. Unfortunately when your opponent lies, it's hard to stay Presidential and at the same time call the liar out. Obama did at least pin Romney down on two big lies that will come back to haunt him. Romney's budget proposal includes tax cuts for the rich, tax hikes for the middle class, something that independent experts have agreed will cost in the region of $5 trillion (which is a lot, I am told). Romney's response? "Nope. Never said that. Not true." Really? 

The second big lie was on dismantling Obama's generally well received Obamacare. As New Statesman explains: 
Obama said Romney wants to repeal Obamacare but doesn't say what he will replace it with. Romney said his plan will prevent private insurance companies from discriminating on the basis of so-called pre-existing conditions, as Obamacare does. That's true except for being entirely false.
Romney has said anyone who already has insurance will enjoy health care protection under his proposal. As for everyone else, his senior adviser told Talking Points Memo that the Romney replacement plan will actually leave that up to states. In other words, Romney has no plan to protect the sick from discrimination unless they already have insurance, which is already the law.
So while it wasn't pleasant seeing 1.21 shoot up to 1.40, I'm expecting a more no-holds-barred approach from VP Joe Biden next week, and a more aggressive Obama in debates two and three as Romney is shown to be totally unelectable.

1 comment:

AL said...

Looks like Romney is polling ahead now... that 1.47 you took doesn't look like value anymore!