Sunday, 7 July 2013

Seminars And Pareto

Right. Quit job, plunge in. Easy!
The famous Ian Erskine stopped by, fresh off the first (I believe) of his workshops, to comment on the 'Millionaire Mindset' debate, and some of my comments on this yesterday. Ian has interacted with a lot more bettors and traders than I have, and is far better qualified to speak on many of these topics, and he has also won a lot more than me!
Very nice to be discussed on your blog and if I may I will just clarify a couple of points for the benefit of the inquisitive minds on the seminar subject.
I totally agree with Danny that this blog (which is the only betting blog I do visit daily) has plenty of information from which people would/could benefit from. My point to Danny would be, just like in betting itself who would have the discipline to go back through posts, make notes and then act on them. I think the answer would be not many.
We completed the first day of the first seminar yesterday to 18 people and again I totally agree that it is not the seminars that are the key to the success but what people do after them. In the room we had varying levels of bettor and only one person who was a winner to the extent of a 5 figure sum. As you would except most were losers.
What I would say in response to Danny is that a) some people may not be as advanced as he is and would like to learn and stop their losses and b) people learn in different ways. I myself learn more visually. Seeing things brings some clarity where reading things takes a while for things to go into my meagre brain.
The overwhelming response in the room is exactly as Cassini states - negative. Even with the winner the general view was one of hoping to win. I don't hope I win, I expect to win and over time know I will win.
We covered many aspects of betting, explaining basics such as odds and percentages, huge amount of time on mindset and thought processes, and demonstrations on poor habits such as trading positions when it makes no financial sense to do so.
Will anyone become a millionaire- I can't say as that is down to them, that was my goal when I set out and I firmly believe if you aim high, even if you miss you will most likely do better than someone who aims low and has no ambition.
I certainly think yesterday we addressed and provided answers to poor thought processes and understanding of what it takes to win long term. I built relationships with people that I know will turn to me for help in the future and will receive it as I appreciate their commitment in paying £395 for one day on what was a new experiment and experience for me.
Whilst on that figure as the topic of profit on seminars is mentioned and people think all the money goes in the hosts pocket. The costs to run this seminar properly are considerable.
The fee was set fairly high to meet these costs but also to dissuade people who may be curious to see what it is all about rather than actually really want to be there. I enjoy working with people who want to learn. It was and never will be about huge profits as the £395 or £595 will not change my life, it may well change the life of the person paying it though.
Is it value? Only if people use what they learned, but as an example we had a young lad in the room yesterday as a case study of what can be achieved. When this lad got in touch with me a couple of years ago, he gambled 18-20 hours a day, chased losses. He owed the world, was trying to live on £20 a week and lived in a dingy flat without even a small fridge to put milk in etc. That is a true story.
Yesterday that same lad logged in live in the room to show his Betfair account and profit in June alone of over £6000. He now wins four figures monthly, every month.
I will take credit for it as I showed him processes and what to do right, rather than what he was doing. His success though can only be accredited to himself as he made decisions to change his life and the way he looked at betting. He grafted, read, studied and now benefits. So it is possible and that gives me huge satisfaction. I love winners and winning, but some are destined to always lose.

I enjoy betting, talking about betting and happen to be good at it. I enjoy helping people who want to learn and my time and circumstances allow me to do so. From there people can be as cynical as they wish, it won't change my life a jot.
Unfortunately as Cassini also states, people (I find particularly in England) love to knock winners and successful people. This is all out of envy and inexplicable to me but that is the world we live in.
Whilst not wanting to boost Cassini's already inflated ego, I read this blog as I respect the author, I respect his achievements and I am never big headed enough to think I cannot learn something new at any time and I myself have taken things from here in the past and looked to see if they would/could aid me. I also enjoy the nature and humour of the writing along the way.
At least someone gets my humour, often self defecating and as I have said before, not to be taken too seriously. Who knows - one day I might take my own show on the road, Cassini And Friends, complete with heavy hors d'oeuvres, port and fine cheeses afterwards. The only problem is that I don't have too many friends. Bring your partners though. Mrs. Cassini will be delivering a short talk (in American, but translators will be available) on the important role partners play in trading. For example, do not hear swearing, banging and heavy breathing and then cheerily ask "How's it going, pardner?"

Snooker Trader, (Danny in disguise), suggested that his suggestion that 80% of this blog was bullshit was an example of the Pareto Principle. Well possibly, but with 92.521% of statistics like this being made up, and the quality percentage of the blog a lot closer to this number than 20%, I shall politely disagree.

The final comment so far, is again from Danny, although I suspect he may have been drinking while commenting:
Cass I was only having a larf, was just tryng to show I am reading the back entries with my poorly devised pareto pun. Your powers of estimation are a bit off btw as it's more like a 4-5 day job, although as you know by now I am a slow learner.
Liked the Millionaire Mindset pic, this mindset topic is an interesting one. I read somewhere that traders who are over confident are more likely to do well than those who aren't, until a black swan wipes their bankroll out at least.
From what I've seen of trading it's the over confidence that kills so many of the novices, so many go over the barricades armed with nothing more than a few strats bought from the system sellers. You could argue my negativity has saved me a fortune! Last night I had a eureka moment - doing nothing will put me in the top 94 per cent of traders. I've still got skin in the game as they say, If I read all the posts here and work hard I might just have a chance of making it. Don't write me off just yet!

Oh and btw it's a triffic blog innit! Think you must have had a serious mindset on last night.
I wouldn't recommend any trader being OVER confident, nor do I encourage the use of the glottal stop when commenting. Confidence is good, over-confidence can lead to big losses. Anyone who buys a strategy should feel their way very gently in the markets and build up slowly if it works. The point is that unless Betfair ceases to exist - which would be something of a black swan event (although since it has been mentioned, it wouldn't be a true black swan event) - there is no hurry to apply any  sustainable money-making strategies.

It's the 'get-rich-quick' mentality that makes some people happier to deposit £1,000 and start playing with £100 stakes than deposit a hundred and play with £2 stakes. What's the hurry? Most sports have seasons lasting for at least a few months, and if you have a system that only works on say World Cup Finals, you probably need to find an edge somewhere else to pay your bills during the other 47 months of the cycle.

And don't get me started on the rush to quit your full-time job before fully evaluating your realistic returns from sports investing.

And after 77 years, we finally have a gentlemen's singles winner at Wimbledon. Nice to know that sport can still be exciting without significant betting. Will they be renaming Henman Hill Murray Mound now?

1 comment:

gundulf said...

'self defecating humour'....conjures up all manner of images in the mind's eye :)