Saturday, 20 July 2013

We Are All Individuals

Not for the first time, Peter Webb falls into the trap of assuming that everyone else's sporting interests and decisions align with his own. In his latest post, Making hay while the sun shines, Peter trots out that:
At this time of year you have many opportunities, so I will stretch every sinew to do as much as I can.
One could argue that there are many opportunities year round, and the strength of these opportunities rather depends on the areas of your expertise. I might also suggest that Peter needs to engage the services of an ergonomics consultant if 'every sinew' is stretching as he trades. It sounds most uncomfortable.
My potential to do something interesting is much higher in the summer than the winter, so my mantra is work now and analyse later.
That's a personal statement, and is likely different for all of us. My potential to make most money lies in the winter months, with the six months of October through March generating 67.1% of my annual profits, and the summer months the time when I should be putting my feet up. The reason is that I do little trading on cricket or golf or tennis and almost no racing (although that is a year round thing anyway), and those six months see all my big hitting sports in full flow, or in the case of baseball, ending with the play-offs. Peter continues:
If you really are serious and do this properly there is no reason to be doing anything else this weekend. Be wary of ‘experts’ that don’t have their nose pressed to the screen at this time of year!
This weekend I will be looking at financial opportunities in the evening baseball and basketball, but watching the cycling and the golf with a sporting interest. Cricket, not so much.
Currently we have some racing, golf and cricket all coming to a head this weekend and soon it will be Glourious Goodwood as well.
Well that's nice, and a trip to Goodwood is a 'glorious' occasion - definitely 'one u' should do... , but in a few weeks (October / November) we will have European Football, the NFL, the baseball play-offs, the NBA and even the NHL with its new two Conference / four division alignment which should provide some new opportunities. Will Peter be waxing lyrical about the opportunities at that time?
So you can see that the time for rest in sports market is the winter, when sports are scarce and often cancelled.
A totally parochial and incorrect statement. There are a few other countries besides the UK around the world, where our winter is their summer, or where many sports are held indoors, and usually, but not always, unaffected by the weather outside. Just yesterday, the NBA's Summer League was interrupted by torrential rain:
Stoppage – With 7:43 left in the third quarter, the Chicago vs. Dallas game was stopped because of a leaky roof during a thunderstorm.
The roof leaked in front of Dallas' bench. Play resumed after a brief delay, and an attendant used towels to keep the floor dry.
Wasn't expecting that from Las Vegas in the Summer!

I do agree with this line of Peter's though, although I have changed the wording to make it read better:
Reap the rewards while the opportunities are there, and at other times in the year or your life, you can sit back a little or work on the next big thing knowing you did the best you could while the opportunity was there.
Great advice, but it's important to understand that those opportunities come at different times for each of us, and as I have commented before, the best opportunities are often found where the sun isn't shining. 

Are you really more likely to find value on the final day of the Open or Second Test, with thousands of eyes looking at the state of play, or on the late night Washington Nationals v Los Angeles Dodgers baseball game?
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Seneca

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