Tuesday, 16 July 2013

Guest Post Invitation

Al has repeated my suggestion from July 3rd that Danny share some of his apparent wisdom with us, although as we are still awaiting delivery on his promise of tips on how to preserve our bookmaker betting accounts - or at least ones that we can actually use. The first batch did indeed ensure longevity for our accounts, but taking less than the best prices and voluntarily restricting your bet size are not what we are looking for.

His latest comment lets myself and Peter Nordsted know that when betting on baseball, we are up against stiff competition, although unfortunately no link is supplied.

While we are on the subject of modeling here is an interview from "advantagegambler" who talks in detail about baseball modeling.
Hopefully it will be of use to Pete Nordsted and others as it shows the level of competition you are up against if you are looking to beat straight up betting markets.
It is quite detailed but the content is good IMO. Maybe Cassini will even learn something.
Cassini is always learning, and one thing he is well aware of is that betting is not easy. I am well aware that the competition is exactly that - competition. They want my money and I want theirs, and while there's the occasional price that really is a gift, for the most part finding value is a matter of research and patience. I've written before that one big advantage we have is that we do not have to make a bet. We can wait patiently for a value opportunity. Baseball betting is no different from betting on any other sport, in fact for me it is one of the easier sports to win at, (second in my all time list), possibly because so few people fully understand it. You wait for value. Just this past Sunday, when someone is looking to back a team at 1.04, (true odds 1.17 - ahead 4-1 with four innings to play) I can only say thank you very much. As it happened, the 4-1 ended 4-3, but taking the lay was value, and you can lock in profits long before the final whistle. Or out.

Thanks to Danny for his concern, but while I always have room to learn more, I do ok.

On my post updating the results of laying home favourites in the Bundesliga and other top leagues, Danny commented:
What are you talking about with these average prices? What is it an average price of exactly? Not much good using an average of bookmakers is it?
And what timeframe are we using? Why don't you simply use the Betfair closing price? Sounds like Cassini economics at work again here.
I'm not quite sure Danny can read, or he was in too much of a hurry to comment that he missed a few things, but I explained in quite some detail what the average price was, where I took it from, together with a qualifier covering the laying of such bets, together with some real world numbers suggesting how the price you can typically lay at relates to the 'average price'. I do hope Danny knows what 'average' means, but if he knows where to get Betfair's closing price for free, I'd be interested in that data. Ignorant comments that show a complete lack of understanding of the point of the post are getting a little tiresome, although the attention paid to the blog is, I suppose, the sincerest form of flattery.
Coming Soon - By Danny Murphy

As Al says:
Danny - Any chance of a guest post?
It would be good to get your take on things.
It would indeed, and perhaps a little background to help us understand that your expertise is actually based on a proven track record of success. Unfortunately in my experience, those who are the first to take pot-shots at others who have actually had some success, are usually those who haven't had any themselves. I hope to be proved wrong.

So Danny - please feel free to write a post for the ages. "Everything I Know About Gambling" by Danny Murphy might be too brief for publication, so title the post what you like, and get writing. The importance of staying hydrated has already been covered.

CalcioCassini @ aol.com


Danny Murphy said...

Here is the link again to the Q&A session with "advancedgambler".


Jimbo said...

Or maybe the Mr Murphy's post title could be 'There is none more blind than those who refuse to see'. .. Just a thought like