Sunday, 14 July 2013

Lost In Translation

At my current Betfair discount rate (6%), I need to win at a rate of less than about 1.137, i.e. if I win (gross) £1,136.87 and lose £1,000 to stay below the Premium Charge radar. Easier said than done, although strategies like the Bundeslayga help. For fun, I decided to lay Betergy's selections today in Norway's Eliteserien, a league I know absolutely nothing about. Unfortunately from a PC mitigation perspective, Betergy had a bad day, with four of their five predictions losing. Apparently their in-depth analysis didn't include the phase of the moon, an oversight that I am sure will soon be fixed.

Perhaps not surprisingly, our old friend Danny Murphy has leapt to their defence, suggesting that I should give them a chance:
The article above is a bit incoherent and quite a lot is lost in translation I feel. However team motivation, weather and players are important factors and I expect they are using weightings too so why not give these guys a chance?
Weightings too! Well that makes all the difference then. Alexandra and Jakub are certainly earning their money right now, with CNN following on the heels of the Wall Street Journal with a similar article.
Kornilov says his system uses two layers of data to predict outcomes, first looking at basic statistics like a team's past performance and average number of goals. The second layer of data includes information related to the weather and life events that may affect players' motivation.
I'm a little confused though. The latest prediction is for Celtic to beat Cliftonville 3:0 next week, at 9:40 on Tuesday 16th.
Leaving aside for the moment the fact that Cliftonville are the home team, and that the game is at 7:45 on Wednesday 17th, the odds are a little strange when compared to Betergy's probabilities.

Betergy calculate Celtic have a 60% probability of winning the match, with 15% for the draw, and 25% for Cliftonville.

Prices quoted are a little out of line with these probabilities though - Celtic 1.08 (IP 93%), Draw 7.0 (14%) Cliftonville 17.0 (6%). That's quite an over-round for a start, but Betfair's prices currently have Celtic at 1.21 so is the tip to lay Celtic or back Cliftonville which is where the value lies? Somehow the concept of value seems to be missing from this site, but perhaps it is there, and just lost in translation as Danny suggests. Or perhaps it isn't.


Danny Murphy said...

While we are on the subject of modeling here is an inverview from "advantagegambler" who talks in detail about baseball modeling.

Hopefully it will be of use to Pete Nordsted and others as it shows the level of competition you are up against if you are looking to beat straight up betting markets.

It is quite detailed but the content is good IMO. Maybe Cassini will even learn something.

AL said...

Danny - Any chance of a guest post?

It would be good to get your take on things.