Saturday 6 July 2013

Millionaire Mindset

Danny Boy Murphy has yet more questions, but the answers to all can be found either in this blog or the XX Draws prospectus, and many of his questions are based on nothing more than a vivid imagination. I do not pay 60% in Super Premium Charges for example, and some of the assumptions about Elo ratings show either that he has not read much of what I have previously written or that what he has read has either been misunderstood or failed to sink in.

In a second comment though, he does make me realise how valuable a resource this blog is:
Cassini (or perhaps Ian) - why should I pay for Ian's course when everything needed for the 'Millionaire Mindset' is available for free on this terrific blog?
If you do delve on here there are a lot of nuggets to be had (not to be confused with the Nugget Crew). Eighty percent is complete bull**** of course but the remaining twenty is gold.
I suggest, and apologies to Ian here, that Danny and others save their money by skipping Ian's workshop, and take two days out of your lives to read through this blog from Day One. There certainly are some gold nuggets contained within. Please use the "Green Fees Optional" Donate button with a suggested donation amount of £195. Thank you in advance.

Danny continues:
I wonder what Thomas Bayes would make of Ian's course? What is the probabilistic chance Ian can give me the 'Millionaire Mindset' I so crave?
From the evidence I have seen so far, I would have to say that the chances are slim to none. Making money from sports investing requires first and foremost discipline, be that in your approach to research, your staking methods, or your reaction to wins and losses. The people I know who have achieved some success in this field all seem to have this quality.

Peter Nordsted is very diligent with his activities, taking a very professional approach. Ian Erskine has a disciplined approach both to his betting and his members, and not everyone could organise a workshop tour.

The other thing is that successful people tend to be more positive. You could argue that it's a lot easier to be positive when you have achieved some success, however modest, but I think that earned success (as opposed to winning the lottery for example) is often the result of a positive attitude rather than the cause.

I'm not sure I understand fully the negative attitude that so many people seem to have towards others who manage to be relatively successful.
Envy is obviously part of it, (I am a little envious of Ian's £1.4million for example), but I would rather use that envy in a positive way, a benchmark for what can be achieved, and as an incentive to keep moving forward and improving my strategies, than use it in a negative way, by spending hours writing comments suggesting the numbers are made up, that Elo ratings don't work, that workshops are a waste of time etc.

Not picking on Danny specifically, since there are many others like him, but I think that until your attitude changes from negative to positive, you will never have the mindset needed to be successful.

The anonymous nature of blog comments and forum postings is also a factor, and you see this negative effect on the latter all the time. If two people post opposing views on an outcome, the losing prediction is derided and ridiculed far more than the successful one is lauded. It's human nature I guess, but whether you agree with the strategies of the likes of Peter or Ian, you should at least learn something about the process they follow to get there, and from their attitudes to adversity.
There's Nothing Easy Here

For example, and I hope Peter won't mind me mentioning this, but right now his baseball system is having a torrid time.

Peter wrote:
Once again this spell does not seem to shake off.
I am now looking at Grading the sides similar to what I do at Premier Betting and adding some more information to the spreadsheet to see if any further trends can be found.
I want to explore every avenue as I have never experienced a run like this in a sport that has only 2 outcomes.
Now personally, and I have told Peter this, I don't agree that baseball teams can be graded in the same way as football teams can, because of the importance of the starting pitcher, but the point I want to make is that when facing adversity, Peter first of all accepts the bad run, and secondly explains constructively what he plans to do about it.

Another example is Danny's comment above about the worth of this blog - "Eighty percent is complete bull**** of course but the remaining twenty is gold".

That may be meant as a derisory comment but there have been 1,560 posts since day one which means that even by Danny's negative calculation some 312 are gold. I'll take that. Of course, I suspect that the 80% number was made up on the spot, as are 97.312% of such quoted statistics...


Ian said...

Hi Cassini,

very nice to be discussed on your blog and if I may I will just clarify a couple of points for the benefit of the inquisitive minds on the seminar subject.

I totally agree with Danny that this blog (which is the only betting blog I do visit daily) has plenty of information from which people would/could benefit from. My point to Danny would be, just like in betting itself who would have the discipline to go back through posts, make notes and then act on them. I think the answer would be not many.

We completed the first day of the first seminar yesterday to 18 people and again I totally agree that it is not the seminars that are the key to the success but what people do after them. In the room we had varying levels of bettor and only one person who was a winner to the extent of a 5 figure sum. As you would except most were losers.

What I would say in response to Danny is that a) some people may not be as advanced as he is and would like to learn and stop their losses and b) people learn in different ways. I myself learn more visually. Seeing things brings some clarity where reading things takes a while for things to go into my meagre brain.

The overwhelming response in the room is exactly as Cassini states - negative. Even with the winner the general view was one of hoping to win. I don't hope I win, I expect to win and over time know I will win.

We covered many aspects of betting, explaining basics such as odds and percentages, huge amount of time on mindset and thought processes, and demonstrations on poor habits such as trading positions when it makes no financial sense to do so.

Will anyone become a millionaire- I can't say as that is down to them, that was my goal when I set out and I firmly believe if you aim high, even if you miss you will most likely do better than someone who aims low and has no ambition.

I certainly think yesterday we addressed and provided answers to poor thought processes and understanding of what it takes to win long term. I built relationships with people that I know will turn to me for help in the future and will receive it as I appreciate their commitment in paying £395 for one day on what was a new experiment and experience for me.

Whilst on that figure as the topic of profit on seminars is mentioned and people think all the money goes in the hosts pocket. The costs to run this seminar properly are considerable.

The fee was set fairly high to meet these costs but also to dissuade people who may be curious to see what it is all about rather than actually really want to be there. I enjoy working with people who want to learn. It was and never will be about huge profits as the £395 or £595 will not change my life, it may well change the life of the person paying it though.... (Cont)

Ian said...

..... Cont

Is it value? Only if people use what they learned, but as an example we had a young lad in the room yesterday as a case study of what can be achieved. When this lad got in touch with me a couple of years ago, he gambled 18-20 hours a day, chased losses. He owed the world, was trying to live on £20 a week and lived in a dingy flat without even a small fridge to put milk in etc. That is a true story.

Yesterday that same lad logged in live in the room to show his Betfair account and profit in June alone of over £6000. He now wins four figures monthly, every month.

I will take credit for it as I showed him processes and what to do right, rather than what he was doing. His success though can only be accredited to himself as he made decisions to change his life and the way he looked at betting. He grafted, read, studied and now benefits. So it is possible and that gives me huge satisfaction. I love winners and winning, but some are destined to always lose.

I enjoy betting, talking about betting and happen to be good at it. I enjoy helping people who want to learn and my time and circumstances allow me to do so. From there people can be as cynical as they wish, it won't change my life a jot.

Unfortunately as Cassini also states, people (I find particularly in England) love to knock winners and successful people. This is all out of envy and inexplicable to me but that is the world we live in.

Whilst not wanting to boost Cassinis already inflated ego, I read this blog as I respect the author, I respect his achievements and I am never big headed enough to think I cannot learn something new at any time and I myself have taken things from here in the past and looked to see if they would/could aid me. I also enjoy the nature and humour of the writing along the way.

Snooker Trader said...

Pareto principle, obviously;).

Unknown said...

Cass I was only having a larf, was just tryng to show I am reading the back entries with my poorly devised pareto pun. Your powers of estimation are a bit off btw as it's more like a 4-5 day job, although as you know by now I am a slow learner.

Liked the Millionaire Mindset pic, this mindset topic is an interesting one. I read somewhere that traders who are over confident are more likely to do well than those who aren't, until a black swan wipes their bankroll out at least.

From what I've seen of trading it's the over confidence that kills so many of the novices, so many go over the barricades armed with nothing more than a few strats bought from the system sellers. You could argue my negativity has saved me a fortune! Last night I had a eureka moment - doing nothing will put me in the top 94 per cent of traders. I've still got skin in the game as they say, If I read all the posts here and work hard I might just have a chance of making it. Don't write me off just yet!

Oh and btw it's a triffic blog innit! Think you must have had a serious mindset on last night.


Pete Nordsted said...


Yes we are enduring only what can be described as a horrible run in the baseball. At one stage during late May we were +15 pts Level staking and +22 points Fixed profit staking only to be now -30 pts Level and -22 pts Fixed.

I am away for a few days now so do not have the exact figures to hand on the Win / Loss ratio but it is freakish and I have never experienced anything like this during my time at looking on the baseball.

The idea of my basic strategy started around 4 years ago when I basically opposed the home favourite that I perceived did not offer value and this has worked very well over the past couple of seasons. Indeed the idea started whilst reading this blog and you highlighted that in baseball on any day any team can beat any other.

Obviously the system has grown and become a little more sophisticated. However the key point is that you have to be consistent and disciplined in how you compile and make your selections when comparing the ratings to the bookmakers lines. This consistency should hopefully lead to finding profitable trends
and my next task will be to break this down into home and away selections and possibly concentrate exclusively on one or the other.

My mind-set is that I have to get this right as I look on this strategy as part of my future pension plan and through patience and discipline I will get it right.

Unfortunately when building anything it takes time what worked last season may not work this season and it is a case of looking for the consistencies.

Another thing I tend to do is not put all my eggs in one basket I have a set bank for each sport and are then spreading my risk. I also invest in the stock market and I have been derided for this before but whenever I make any financial commitment I always discuss it first with my wife. Although we sometimes have disagreements in what shares to place our money, sports wise she just lets me get on with it however we first agree to how much we are willing to place into the venture and she periodically likes to know how the investment is going.

Now this means that for me personally my mind is free to follow the system as it should be without concern knowing that we have agreed to risk a certain amount of money on this venture and we may lose all of our capital.

I believe this is so important in order to follow a system through you should always be correctly capitalised with money that is used for no other purpose and if more people followed this simple rule then more would be successful long term.

This is a great blog Cassini and I look forward to profiting from your excellent XXX draw system this season.

Pete Nordsted

Chauncey said...

This is awesome!