Thursday, 18 July 2013

Credit Where Due

While the issues raised in my recent post on Betergy's Cliftonville v Celtic, or was it Celtic v Cliftonville Champions League Qualifier, remain valid, I do have to give credit where it's due, and report that Betergy did nail the correct score of 0:3 in this game. It wasn't the longest of long-shots, but a decent priced winner nonetheless, I think in the 7.5 range.

Betergy appear to grade themselves based on the result rather than the odds, so a predicted win for Barcelona at home to Granada (1.06) would count the same as a predicted win for Real Betis v Real Madrid (10.56). Not that the latter is a likely prediction.

If you predicted a home win for every favourite at 1.5 or less in the big five leagues last season, you would have had a 'successful' prediction 76% of the time. Sounds better than a pre-tax / pre-commission return of 2.46 points from 305 bets, but perhaps a little misleading as a measure of the predictions success rate.

1 comment:

Beige said...

couldn't agree more about prediction %. Most meaningless stat ever. Surprised that I see it so often and from seemingly reputable places.