EPL In Numbers

Some more interesting statistics from the EPL this season.

• Stoke City won every match where they held a half-time lead, which was only six, as Stoke are very much a second half team.
• Bolton Wanderers lost every match where they trailed at half-time. All thirteen.
• Manchester City scored 19 goals after the 80 minute mark.
• Neither Manchester club conceded a goal in the opening 15 minutes of a match.
• Manchester City conceded just one goal in the first 30 minutes of a match.
• 22.3% of goals in the EPL came after 75 minutes.
• Only four home teams, losing at half-time, came back to win: Fulham(2), Blackburn Rovers, Chelsea and Sunderland.
• Five away teams, losing at half-time, came back to win: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Norwich City, Stoke City and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
• Manchester City never went into half-time trailing when playing away, and only once at home.
• Manchester United were ahead at half-time in 24 matches, and went on to win all but one of those.
• More matches finished 1-2 than 2-1.
• Manchester United scored the most penalties - 9.
• Manchester City lost five matches, but not one was by more than a single goal.
• Fulham opened the scoring in just 14 matches, and conceded the first goal in 21.
• 116 Away Wins (30.5%) is the most in the 20 years of the Premier League.
• Wigan Athletic remain the only team to have played in the English top division and not been relegated from it.

I thought they were interesting anyway. If anyone sees any errors in that list, let me know please.  If I don't receive at least five comments telling me how boring that was, I shall repeat for the other top leagues I follow in the next few days.

I'm sure most readers have already read my Champions League piece over at Betting Expert, (and 'Liked' it I hope) but one more coincidence to add to the "Consider This" section full of coincidences at the end is this:

In 2010, Blackpool won the Championship play-offs to reach the Premier League. 

Chelsea will be hoping for a Blackpool win almost as much as the Tottenham Hotspur family will be hoping for a Bayern Munich win on Saturday.

I-Spy

After drifting to 110 on Betfair, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has traded as low as 1.3 today after the rumour that Randy Lerner's private jet has been seen in Kristiansund, Norway. Most readers are probably aware that after managing Manchester United'd reserve team from 2008, Solskjaer moved to Molde and led them to their first ever title last year. Not a huge amount traded a 'big' prices, but plenty in the 3.x range. Now where did I leave my I-Spy Aircraft book?

Josh followed up on my post yesterday about 'poor' Manchester United,

As for what you said about my latest article however, I felt that I addressed the issues you pointed out throughout the piece. The aim of it was to shine a bit of realism on the bitterness from United fans, as outlined in the title.

...and indeed he did. My point was really that there is no point in even bringing the subject up. Whatever team you support, this is the way of the world these days. Personally, I would love to go back to the days when any one of half-a-dozen teams were in with a realistic chance of winning the title at the start of a season, but that's not going to happen. Whining, especially from a Manchester United, Chelsea or Paris St Germain fan, about a club having too much money, is just not going to win any sympathy.

It's a bit like the Super Premium Charge. Whining about it doesn't earn any sympathy, and while we would all love to turn the clock back a few years, it's not going to happen. But every now and then I reserve the right to have a small whine.

I don't always agree with Ian Erskine, but his end of season review / email today contained some good advice on topics such as reviewing your results often to see what works, and more importantly, what doesn't work, being honest with yourself, willpower and self control,  leaving your betting bank alone and letting it grow ("if you have to earn money in your gambling to withdraw and pay a bill it will affect your ability to bet without emotion"). You can read Ian's post in full here.

Pass The Tissues

Sound Advice

Josh, at Goal Nineteen, asked for a link exchange, and I have obliged, although with just four posts since June 2011, it may not stay on the blog roll for too long, as three months without a post and the link gets removed to ensure everything stays fresh and fruity.

Apparently a bitter Manchester United fan, Josh rather amusingly writes in his latest post about his feelings on Sunday at the final whistle:

"Yet it did not take long for the pain and anguish to turn to anger, and the familiar old claim that City have 'bought success' began to take hold again".

Oh my. I'm not sure what most impartial readers think, but coming from a United fan, that seems pretty rich to me. The bully at school gets angry when an even bigger bully joins the school!

Top ten Premier League transfers include:

Wayne Rooney, Everton to Manchester United, August 2004, £25.6 million

Juan Sebastian Veron, Lazio to Manchester United, July 2001, £28.1 million

Rio Ferdinand, Leeds United to Manchester United, July 2002, £29.1 million

Dimitar Berbatov, Tottenham to Manchester United, September 2008, £30.75 million

Poor little Man U - hardly the people's club. How dare another team try to buy success! Has any Premier League Champion NOT bought success? It's a business. Teams are buying their way out of non-league football like never before. Crawley Town last season, Fleetwood Town this season. Who, outside of Fleetwood, had even heard of them just a couple of years ago? North West Counties League (Level Nine) in 2005. That's an impressive climb through the ranks.

But back to Manchester United, and their financial reports (as of February 2012) show that they have spent £500m in interest payments since 2005.

So the total cash taken out of United, to pay for a takeover the fans and then board did not want, was £497.5m by 31 December. In round figures, and anyway now, with two months further interest from December, the Glazer family have been responsible for £500m going out of United.

Perhaps some of that 'anger' should be directed at a more appropriate target. 

Incidentally, the submarine and Kenny Dalglish reference in yesterday's post proved prophetic within a few hours. Quite coincidental, although no doubt the Internet is rife with conspiracy theories saying 'he knew'.

New South Wales Trading Ban

A follow up on the recent post about traders on New South Wales horse racing not being allowed to trade any more, and it isn't only for accounts based in NSW:

yeah....finally I got through the number and they said they want me to stop trading NSW racings ,I said ok then they reactivated my account....and thats it.....

Below The Surface

Full Speed Ahead, Mr Dalglish

Looking at reasons for Liverpool's under-achieving, compared with their ratings, and it is typified by the two results below, coincidentally exactly six months apart.

On 10.Sep.2011, Liverpool  lost 0-1 at Stoke City, who had just one shot on target (to Liverpool's 11).

Then on 10.Mar.2012, Liverpool lost 0-1 at Sunderland, who had just one shot on target (to Liverpool's 5).

The League Table simply awards 3 points to the victors, and none to the vanquished, but clearly this is far too simplistic when rating teams in a low scoring game like football. Liverpool are better than their record suggests, although going an entire season without turning their 'real strength' into points is quite an achievement!

Betfree247 commented on the ratings:

Surprised to see Stoke down there to be honest. If Villa get their next managerial appointment wrong they could be a casualty next season, squad looks very poor on paper and they need someone who will be able to work on a tight budget, no point them hiring a cheque book manager.

Stoke City's rating may be a bit false given that they quite clearly took their foot off the pedal once safety was earned. Working backwards from the end of the season, there was the 2-2 draw with lowly rated Bolton Wanderers, a sorry 0-1 loss at QPR where may managed just one shot on target, draws at home to Everton and Arsenal (who both had more shots than their hosts) , a thrashing at Newcastle where they managed all of two shots on target, and a draw at Aston Villa (three shots on goal).

Meanwhile in that time-frame, Wigan were getting seven shots on goal in a 1-2 loss at Chelsea, defeating (and out shooting) Manchester United, winning at Arsenal with another seven shots on goal, thrashing Newcastle United 4-0, and winning at Blackburn Rovers with 19 shots.

Poorest effort of the season was Blackburn's failure to muster a single shot at Tottenham at the end of April. Contrast this with the strategy of Wigan, and it's hard to think other than that both strugglers got what they deserved. In fairness, Wigan had just two shots at home to Everton in February, although they earned a point courtesy of an own goal that day.

The prize for most shots in one game? Manchester City's 35 on Sunday in the season finale. 

Worthy of note was Aston Villa's failure to get a shot on target in their 1-2 defeat at home to West Bromwich Albion last October, (penalties don't count as shots on target apparently), and they may well struggle again. Appointing Alex McLeish was always a strange decision to me, although I said that about Pardew at Newcastle, so don't read too much into my opinion of managerial appointments. So long as Dougie Freedman doesn't end up there - he's not on the list, for now at least. 

Posting Away

Some of you may have read elsewhere that a handful of my more considered posts will now be made over at Betting Expert and the first, on the subject of this weekend's UEFA Champions League Final and a look back at the fate of teams from the capital in that competition. I've also looked at the history of teams playing 'home' matches in the final, either on their own pitch, or on another ground within the same country. It would be immodest of me to say it makes a fascinating read, but it does.


My more mundane ramblings will continue to be posted on here, and rather like Zach over at A Beautiful Numbers Game, I will link to any away posts I make.

And so for any readers remaining, here's a quick review of the EPL ratings highlights at the conclusion of hostilities. Manchester City topped my ratings, followed by Manchester United in second place. No surprises there, nor the bottom two with Wolverhampton Wanderers rated last, and Blackburn Rovers just above them, but there are several over and under-achievers. Liverpool started the season ranked third and ended it in third. Then come Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea, but no sign of Newcastle United until we get to 9th place. Ahead of them are Everton and, perhaps surprisingly, Wigan Athletic. In mid-table come Fulham, West Bromwich Albion, Swansea City and Queens Park Rangers. The remaining teams, and those to watch for relegation next season, are Sunderland, Norwich City, Aston Villa and Stoke City. As I wrote a few days ago, the four lowest rated survivors last season were Bolton, Wolves and Sunderland and Blackburn Rovers, a strategy that would have caught all three relegated teams, although at least one promoted team usually drops straight back down. 

Nothing Special

If someone was going to disagree with my assessment that the most dramatic end to a Football League season in England remains the 1989 2-0 win by Arsenal at Liverpool even after Sunday’s drama in Manchester, the odds-on favourite would have been BigAl. I suspect he has fallen victim to a form of the ‘recency effect’ here, human nature being to place more emphasis or importance on recent events than on previous ones. If you are too young to remember an event, then it is much harder to compare it with later events and to some extent, younger people could be excused for thinking that nothing so dramatic as Sunday’s events has ever happened before, but the truth is that it has.

I am not an Arsenal fan, but even for a neutral observer, that Friday night in May 1989 would be hard to beat for drama. The build up to the game was dramatic in itself. As goal.com wrote:

On Friday, May 26, 1989, the League Championship was decided in the most dramatic finale to any English top-flight campaign. The two leading teams, Liverpool - managed then as now by Kenny Dalglish - and Arsenal, met in the very last match of the season. Every other club had completed their programmes (this game had been postponed because of the Hillsborough tragedy six weeks earlier).

Liverpool, with a 24-match unbeaten run, had relentlessly closed a 19-point gap on the Gunners. Already FA Cup winners, the Reds had thrashed West Ham 5-1 in their penultimate match and were now three points ahead of Arsenal.

Uniquely, everything was still at stake for both teams in an all-or-nothing scenario. Anything better than a two-goal defeat for Liverpool and the title would be theirs; victory by two goals for Arsenal would deny the Reds the Double and make George Graham's Gunners champions by virtue of number of goals scored.

Yet Arsenal hadn't won at Anfield for 15 years. Liverpool hadn't lost there by a two-goal margin for three, and had only done so nine times in the previous 18 seasons. The momentum of recent results was with Liverpool, as was a tidal wave of emotion. Arsenal's chances of winning had been written off by everyone outside of Highbury.

But 4,000 Gooners made the trip north to Merseyside, as much in blind hope as expectation. The kick-off was delayed 10 minutes to allow the visitors to take their places in a corner opposite the Kop. It merely added to the tension.

The Arsenal players presented a £30,000 cheque to the Hillsborough disaster fund and came onto the pitch carrying bouquets of flowers which they handed to Liverpool supporters around the ground. Then the action got underway.

Arsenal needed to win by two or more, any other result, and the title was Liverpool’s. The stage was set, and after a goalless first half, Arsenal took the lead in the 54th minute, and that was how it remained until time added on – which, back in those days, was at the discretion of the referee alone.

As Jason Cowlet describes in his book The Last Game:

Thomas clinched the first Arsenal championship in a generation with the last kick of the last game of the season at Liverpool, who until that moment were boringly brilliant, imperviously collecting trophies every year and not beaten on their own turf for an eternity. The miracle of it all: Arsenal had to win by two goals otherwise the trophy went to Liverpool, Thomas’s goal was the second goal, cracking the championship code in a final match decider which has had no equal in terms of table-turning, last-moment drama whatever team you follow. It was a film-script ending – only Michael Caine, Pele and Sylvester Stallone had a more impossible finale when they beat the Nazis in Escape To Victory.

I was tracking the Premier League Winner market as the drama on Sunday unfolded, and while Liverpool would surely have traded at 1.01 had Betfair been around, Manchester United didn't go quite that short. I thought they had hit 1.09, but I've seen 1.07 over was matched at Geoff's fulltimebetting blog. When City equalised, the price jumped out to ~1.26, but not for long. 1.01 on the other side very soon after!

Manchester City have actually pulled of a similar miracle before, on May 30th 1999. BigAl, and other younger readers, may not recall that it wasn’t too long ago that City were in the Second Division (third level), and looked to be missing out on promotion via the play-offs trailing 0-2 to Gillingham with time running out. Scoring one in the 90th minute, and an equalizer in the 95th minute (the latest regulation time goal in Wembley history), City tied the game 2-2 and went on to win promotion on penalties.

Of course the other Manchester team famously scored two stoppage time goals (91’ and 93’) just four days earlier in the UEFA Champions League final, as they came from behind to beat Bayern Munich 2-1.

1999 was a big year for drama. At the other end of the league that season, who can forget Carlisle United goalkeeper Jimmy Glass joining the attack when his team were awarded a corner with 10 seconds left of the season and the game tied 1-1. Needing a win to avoid dropping into non-league football, Glass scored with a volley, (unsurprisingly the only goal of his career), and Scarborough went down - never to be seen again it seems, as the club folded in 2007.

On a more personal note, I well remember a night in North Wales at the end of the 1976-77 season. Crystal Palace went to Wrexham for their last game of the season, needing to win by two goals for a realistic chance of promotion. (A win by one would have meant missing out to Wrexham if the Welshmen drew their last game of the season on the following Saturday; any other result and Palace missed out). After cruising to a 2-0 lead, Wrexham tied it up late at 2-2. Resigned to another season in the old Third Division, when Palace scored in the 90th minute, while the game was won, it probably still wasn't enough, but amazingly almost straight from the kick-off, Jeff Bourne scored another, and we had won by the two goal margin. In the end, Wrexham lost the last game at home to Champions Mansfield (my, how times change), and Palace were promoted. Not quite at the level of Arsenal or Manchester City's triumphs, but that's probably about as good as it'll get for me - although the 1990 FA Cup Semi-Final v Liverpool wasn't bad either! 

With moments like these, it's no wonder football is the world's game. 

Meanwhile, back to the more mundane business of updating the Friendly Tipster Table, and Geoff pulled off an amazing finish to the weekend, though not quite so amazing as those endings mentioned above. After opening his eight selections with five losses, Geoff's last three selections were all winners, with draws at Sandnes (me neither), Ajaccio and IFK Gothenburg, and his season profits climb to 6.89 and 6th place. 

The XX (Classic) matches had one winner from three selections (the game at Ajaccio), and the Extended had just two winners from 10, but six were under 2.5 goals so a profit on these. I'm sure Geoff would like to play all summer with the Scandinavian leagues, but I shall be wrapping this up after the French league is settled this weekend. 

Penultimate Standings

It's unlikely that the XX Unders and XX Draws will be caught at the top, as there won't be more than a couple of selections at most, if that. I wish I'd started tracking the Extended selections earlier, as they have fared decently over 50+ matches at what can be a treacherous time of the season, but I'll be writing more on these next week.

Blue October

While Michael Thomas's goal in the dying seconds on the 1988-89 season at Anfield was probably more dramatic, Manchester City's two stoppage time goals today to snatch the title back from Manchester United is a very close second. In favour of 1989 was the fact that the two adversaries were facing each other, but 2012 has the intra-city rivalry as well as the 44 years since a title in its favour, but both finishes were ones that won't soon be forgotten. Had the 6-1 win by City at United back in October been a 2-1 instead, the two teams would have been level on points, goal difference, and goals scored / goals conceded. Now that would have been remarkable. I'm not sure what the tie-breaker is after these have been applied - a one-off play off I believe, but I'm not sure. I am sure it has never happened before.

One XX Draw Selection in the Premier League today, which was West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal, so no joy there. Pete Nordsted needed two draws from three games to move into green on the season, but with Norwich, Manchester United winning, and a late goal for Swansea City, he came up blank for a small loss on the season.

More updates later, once the Italian, Spanish and French results are in - and for Geoff, we need Norway and Sweden for his 4-4 selections.

Hopes Clipped

NSW: Now Stop Winning

Geoff's draws have been one of the better performers in the Friendly Tipster Table (3.21% ROI from 129 selections) and his selections this week are:

Swansea City v Liverpool - England (3.6); West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal - England (4.2); Cesena v AS Roma - Italy (3.8); Ajaccio v Lyon - France (3.3) - all bet3000
Honefoss v Odd Grenland - Norway (3.25); Lillestrom v Brann - Norway (3.4); Sandnes v Rosenberg - Norway (3.6); IFK Gotenburg v Malmo - Sweden (3.3) all expekt

Cricket Betting Blog wrote:

I too believe that the FA Cup is now a 2nd class tournament, I remember only too well how it was the biggest prize you could win when my team, Coventry City, won it in 1987 - what has happened to them since? :(

The line that I usually trot out during this debate in the pub, is that years ago teams rushed back their best players from injury to play in FA Cup games, such was there importance. These days, the best players don't even get put on the bench at some clubs, let alone start, let alone rushed back from injury.

Yes, whatever happened to Coventry City? Did they have 'best players' to rush back from injury? Didn't they used to be a First Division team? :)

I'm pretty confident that there is no one alive who would has ever, said with any credibility, that the FA Cup was 'the biggest prize you could win' but it remains the biggest prize that most teams can 'realistically' win! 

From New South Wales comes a report on the forum that Betfair is no longer allowing traders there to back and lay the same horse (at least not in the same race). Apparently you can back OR lay, (and presumably in a two horse race, back - or lay - both entries) but no longer can you trade out all green (or red). Bizarrely they appear to be making the announcement by phoning people and telling them to stop, or risk their account being cancelled, rather than by updating their software. Whether the 'rules' apply to traders living in New South Wales, or betting on events IN New South Wales isn't clear to me, (I suspect the former), but unless this policy makes its way out of NSW, it's of academic interest only. However, it is an example of how quickly the 'rules' can change. One minute you're a full-time horse-race trader in Sydney, the next you're Up The Swanee. With in-play betting under close scrutiny from the Gambling Commission (integrity, fairness and openness concerns), should that ever be banned, there will be a lot of unhappy people around.

Not that I am too happy myself right now. I managed to drop close to four figures on the Clippers v Grizzlies game, but at least the loss offsets the previous day's win and keeps that Premium Charge down! Both Los Angeles teams now have a game seven this weekend. Lakers host the Denver Nuggets with Ron Artest back from his suspension, and the Clippers travel to Memphis where they will lose. Their body language indicated as much, but no markets up yet.

There are markets up for Serie A, and some strange ones at that as noticed by Scott. Genoa v Palermo has the draw at ~2.74, and the Under 2.5 is at ~2.47. Under 3.5 is around 1.67. 2-1 anybody?

Ground Cucumber

Solving The Silkworm Puzzle

Readers may have noticed I've been somewhat quiet about the NBA play-offs currently in full swing. For me, the 'big' games (play-offs, finals etc.) in most sports are rarely more profitable than regular season games. With the occasional exception, it more often means the opposite - either smaller wins, or worse, losses, and learning from the past, I tend to exercise a lot more care before getting involved. Liquidity may be higher, (not always, as Peter Webb noted just this week), but that can simply mean that more 'experts' are involved in the market, and thus more competition. In sports such as basketball, where there are often several regular season games each day, the attention of more knowledgeable traders is divided between those games, while at play-off time, when games tend to be staggered rather than simultaneous, all the big fish are in one pool. While sports such as the NBA and NFL still have a lot less experts than football, the additional competition that accompanies the higher liquidity isn't always a good thing. There's a reason why April is by far the worst month of the year for me!

A couple of Sundays ago, I got involved in a Los Angeles Lakers v Denver Nuggets game which proved costly - a loss of  £3,000+ in fact. Not as costly as the JP Morgan London trader who cost that esteemed firm at least $2 billion as revealed today. I felt much better after I read that. My opinion that the Nuggets would make a run at some point was wrong, and I paid the price. It happens. The Nuggets were the highest scoring team in the league, but that game was not one of their better ones. Unfortunately, as often seems to be the way with these things, one big loss was followed by a number of smaller ones, one of those spells where nothing seems to go right. How much this is due to a subconscious 'on tilt' mentality, and how much is just bad 'random fluctuation of probability' I'm not sure, but it happens so often that I think there's something in the 'on tilt' suggestion, however much I don't want to believe that.

Readers will be aware that my preferred strategy is to lay the leader when they appear to be too short, but there just seemed to be a long run of leaders going on to win. Last night I pulled back most of the  £3,000 when the Chicago Bulls, up by one but trading too short, missed two late free-throws and then gave up two free-throws at the other end to lose by one point to the Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers. It was a much needed win, both for me and the Sixers, with the confidence boost almost palpable. And as often seems to be the way after a win, a new spell begins where nothing seems to go wrong. The 'on-level' mentality is back. The power of positive thinking?

It's unfortunate that the two contrasting events fell in separate Premium Charge weeks, but there's not much we can do about that.

I wrote about the Sixers intentionally dropping to eighth seed to avoid the Miami Heat a few weeks ago, and their plan worked out well - aided by the Bulls' injury woes of course. The New York Knicks, who finished seventh in the East, were eliminated by Miami 4-1. Two series in the West remain undecided, those involving the teams from Los Angeles. The Clippers face the Memphis Grizzlies in a few minutes, up 3-2 and playing at home, and then tomorrow, in the same home, the Lakers play a game seven versus the Denver Nuggets.

That same home is busy these days - in the NHL, the Los Angeles Kings have reached the Western Conference Finals playing a seven game series with the Phoenix Coyotes, formerly the original Winnipeg Jets. Both teams are from the Pacific Division, the weakest Western Conference division, so this is a somewhat unlikely conference final pairing. Phoenix were sixth best, (although officially third seeds), while the Kings were the eighth, and final, qualifiers. The two teams played six close regular season matches, each team winning three, and three of which went to overtime. Only one game was decided by more than one goal, and that was the first back in October. The series opens in Phoenix on Sunday. Liquidity has been poor for the games I have looked in on this season though, but maybe, now that we are (almost) down to four teams, it will improve.

A couple of dodgy looking games in Serie A this weekend. One, Catania v Udinese showed up as an XX Draw (Extended) Selection, but with the price as low as 2.16, it really seems fairest to exclude this from the selections. I certainly won't be backing the draw at that price. Genoa v Palermo is also trading at sub 3.0 The last weekend of the season can throw up some surprises, although I fancy one shortie to win fairly comfortably and secure a first title in 44 years.

Finally, Louis Pasteur and betting may not appear to have a lot in common, but I found his approach to solving the problem of why silkworms were dying across France interesting and relevant. He solved the puzzle by 'careful experimental reasoning'. He 'never stopped thinking about a problem' and the three words he lived by, a lesson from his father, were 'Will', 'Work' and 'Success'. Have the will (desire) to solve the puzzle, work at solving the puzzle, and success is attainable. It doesn't matter if the puzzle is that of dying silkworms, anthrax or finding an edge in sports betting. You need to be serious about solving the puzzle, and you need to work at finding a solution. Paying someone £20 for a crappy system isn't going to work by the way. Pasteur was always thinking about new ideas and wasn't afraid to go back to the drawing board, and that's a good lesson for us all.

Thanks to @petenordsted and @borisranting for their mentions on Twitter. Appreciated. 

Overload

I rather glibly wrote yesterday that "Sunderland were never in trouble" but Peter Webb reminded me that Sunderland did struggle in the early part of the season, being as low as 17th after 14 matches and trading at 4.5. Steve Bruce was sacked on November 30th, and under new manager Martin O'Neill took 13 points from the next possible 18, and cruised into the top half of the table.

Peter's post today was called "Has the FA Cup lost it's appeal?" I'm not sure where the apostrophe came from, but the answer is that the FA Cup is not what it was.

When I was a boy, the FA Cup Final was one of those rare occasions when you could watch a live football match on TV, albeit in black and white in my case. The country may not have ground to a halt for it, but it was a big deal. Saturday morning TV was all Cup Final related, and then live pictures of the team coaches leaving the Selsdon Park Hotel or later, crawling up Wembley Way.

Nowadays the Final is just one of many games available from around the world at the press of a button. Manchester United's decision in the Summer of 1999 to decline the opportunity to defend their trophy, effectively downgrading the tournament to second-class status behind the Champions League and the League.

Peter drew attention to the fact that:  

At the start of the FA CUP final there was matched bet volume of £3,533,632. On Tuesday night the same teams met again in the premier league and the matched bet volume at the start of the match was £4,784,666.

The League game took place on a night where there was nothing else worthy of attention, while the FA Cup clashed with a busy schedule of matches across Europe. Casual punters looking for a fun bet while watching the match on TV probably spent their cash at the bookies, whereas the shrewder exchange investor, think XX Draws, would have been winning money in Italy and Spain.Or losing it in Germany.

Back in 1967, there was almost no newspaper coverage of foreign leagues, ok - Scotland got a mention, and there was no TV coverage at all.

Tony has assigned me some homework for the summer.

Hi Cassini, this might have been covered before but if you have stats available, can you tell me how many times this season a team has been odds on away from home and failed to win? Can you provide a breakdown for each of the big leagues you monitor and can you go back more than just this season?

Like I say, it may have been touched upon but other than the odd one or two team there aren't many that win more than 50% of their away games but I don't know if they win over 50% of the games in which they are odds on.

Possibly one for your friendly tipster table?

I like marshmallows and I always burn my mouth if I toast them as I don't wait for them to cool.

I'll take a look when the games are all done. 

Marshmallows - Who Can Resist?

Steve over at the modestly named Best Betfair Football Trader blog wrote a piece on long-term Betfair trading, specifically the promotion / championship markets. While the presence of new teams into a group of ratings which have evolved over at least 34 matches complicates things, I was interested in seeing how the three lowest rated survivors from last season had performed in each league, thinking that, on average, one relegated team would come from that short-list, one would be a promoted team, and one would be a relative surprise.

In England, three three lowest rated survivors last season were, (worst team first), Sunderland, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Bolton Wanderers. Wolves are already down, and Bolton at 1.42 to join them. Sunderland were never in trouble. Blackburn were not much of a surprise, they finished one place higher than Bolton in the rankings last season, and if Queens Park Rangers go down, there's the promoted team.

In Serie A, the three were Bologna, Cagliari and Lecce. Lecce are 1.07 to go down, Cagliari struggled but survived, and Bologna were never in trouble. Novara were the relegated promoted team, if you see what I mean.

In La Liga, the three candidates were Real Sociedad, Mallorca and Racing Santander. Racing finished bottom by some distance, Real Sociedad struggled but survived, and Mallorca were never in trouble. Of the promoted clubs, Rayo Vallecano and Granada are both at risk.

In France, the three expected to struggle were Nice, Brest, and, get this, Montpellier! Brest are at risk, Nice slightly at risk, and Montpellier? They are at risk of winning the title! I guess that counts as 'never in trouble'. Dijon are the promoted team most at risk.

And in Germany, Freiburg, Koln and Wolfsburg were the trio to watch. Koln went down, Freiburg survived, and Wolfsburg were never in trouble. Of the promoted teams, Hertha Berlin could go down if they lose their relegation play-off with Dusseldorf.

I'll try and remember to revisit this topic once the season is over, and put up the teams that may struggle in 2012-13.

New blogger Derek posted a comment on yesterday's post saying:

...the only thing I don’t agree with is “If your discipline is so bad that the only way you can keep your stakes small is to keep a small bank, then you do not have the discipline required to be successful at this.” In my opinion discipline is not something we are born with. I believe it is something we can learn. it is one area that I do work hard on and I have come on leaps and bounds since I have started so I don’t see why I cant develop this further to gain the discipline required.

I guess my thoughts on this are that if you can build up from a small bank, you should be increasing your stakes (slowly) as your bank builds, not keeping the bank artificially small, not to mention that if you have pulled money out, you surely still think of that money as part of your betting bank. For me it's just easier to leave the funds in one place, but then I'm not the type of person who lets bank size influence the stake size, beyond  the latter being a percentage of the former. I'm not a huge fan of marshmallows either. Self-control is part learned, part inherited, but it's an important skill to learn.

Past studies have reported that self-control is partially inherited and partially learned and that those with less self-control are more likely to be unemployed, en­gage in unhealthy behaviours such as overeating, and live a shorter life.

One study found that children with lower self-control were more likely as adults to have poor health, be single parents, depend on drugs or alcohol, have difficulties with money and possess a criminal record.

Or there is this:

"A test of both general ability and much else besides was discovered by psychologists in the late 1960s. No examinations are involved, no questionnaires, or psychometric testing. All it requires is a bag of marshmallows.

"The Marshmallow Test emerged during studies by Walter Mischel and his colleagues at Stanford University into the ability of children to delay gratification. In a series of experiments, they measured this ability by putting a marshmallow on a plate and telling the child that he can help himself - or wait until the researcher gets back in 15 minutes, in which case he will be given an extra marshmallow.

"Predictably enough, some of the children wolfed down the marshmallow immediately, while others decided to wait and get the bigger reward. The researchers were struck by how those who waited devised ways of avoiding temptation, from talking or singing to themselves to inventing simple games; one even decided to doze off.

"The real surprise, however, came a decade later, when Prof Mischel and his colleagues tracked down the children to see what kind of people they were turning into. They found that the children who had been best at delaying gratification had better academic and social skills. They typically achieved much higher Scholastic Aptitude Test scores, were less likely to be distracted, more motivated to succeed and were better at making and keeping friends."

Almost Green All Over

The remaining draw selections, all of them from the Extended category, finished with one winner, and two near-misses where the opening, and only, goals were in the 85' and 87' minutes. Four winners from the five selections on the Unders bets though, for a 1.59 point overall profit on the day.

The table is updated, although it should be noted that the Liverpool v Chelsea game tonight is a Drawmaster selection, and a draw would put these selections into the green. Not surprisingly, the stragglers in this table fell away and stopped sending in selections, and other ideas were quietly dropped, but of the survivors, most are faring quite reasonably. The XX Draws (Bundesliga) are not expected to be profitable, and with the regular season in Germany over - there is one important contest coming up between Hertha Berlin and Dusseldorf - with just five games in the books, I should drop these too.

I shall probably continue this Table idea next season, with a little more structure. Talkbet has already suggested he would be interested in joining, and if anyone else would also like to join in the fun, let me know.

An interesting end to the season in France where, with two matches remaining, nine teams are separated by the six points available. Unfortunately for Auxerre, their last game is against title chasing Montpellier who look a little short at 1.43 to win the league, with a home game v Lille (who top the Cassini ratings) still to come this weekend.

'Almost' Green All Over

I've added a new blog to my blog roll, because I wanted to comment on something the author had posted. He wrote:

Something Mark Iverson said really struck a chord with me the other day .

"So there's a simple message there to any new sports traders - keep re-investing into your betting/trading bank. Don't spend all your winnings at the end of the month if you want the potential to win more over the long term."

Now I haven't been so carefree as to spend my winnings, but I have took out my winnings at the end of every month and Kept them in my Moneybookers account and started each month with the same amount. I do this for 2 reasons, 1. To keep my stakes low as I wasn't confident enough with increasing my stakes and 2. because this enabled me easily compare the profit I made( if any) each month.

I realise the second one is not a valid reason really as I do also record each bet on excel but the main reason was my stake size. been a newbie, the last thing I wanted, was to blow my bank and never have a real chance of giving this a go.

Indeed, neither reason is valid in my opinion. Because your bank has some money in it doesn't mean you have to increase your stakes. If your discipline is so bad that the only way you can keep your stakes small is to keep a small bank, then you do not have the discipline required to be successful at this. And as the author notes himself, you keep records on a spreadsheet. 

As for 're-investing', you don't need to do anything other than stop pulling your money out. Leave it alone! If you are profitable, the bank builds itself. It's a bit like the DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plans) option available on many shares. Select Yes, and let the shareholding build.   

In March 2011 I wrote: 

And that’s how a betting bank should be. A betting bank shouldn’t be treated like a savings account, something that you dip into on a frequent basis to ‘pay a few bills’ - it should be money set aside that you will never need and can leave alone to grow. You don’t plant a seed and then keep digging it up if you want to grow a plant. You leave it alone. Once it has grown, it’s perfectly acceptable to do a little pruning, but let the thing grow first.

Not betting related, but some great news in my e-mail today, although why it went to the Spam folder, I have no idea. Official communications shouldn't be treated like this. It reads:


Notification ! Tax Refund


Dear Applicant:

Following an upgrade of our computer systems and review of our records we have investigated your payments and latest tax returns over the last seven years our calculations show that you have made over payments of GBP 1578.25

Due to the high volume of refunds due you must complete the online application, the telephone help line is unable to assist with this application. In oder to process your refund you will need to complete the application form attached to this email.Your refund may take up to 6 weeks to process please make sure you complete the form correctly.

NOTE: If youve received an Income Tax repayment it will either be following a claim youve made or because HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) has received new information about your taxable income or entitlement to allowances. The refund may come through your tax code or as a payment and could relate to the current tax year or earlier years..

An Income Tax repayment is a refund of tax that youve overpaid. So, if youve paid too much tax for example through your job or pension this year or in previous years HMRC will send you a repayment. Youll get the repayment by bank transfer directly to your credit or debit card.

I haven't opened the attachment yet, but I look forward to completing the simple step of filling in all my credit / debit card details, along with PINs if required, and sitting back to await the arrival of GBP 1578.25. Strange that the apostrophe on the HM Revenue Customs UK's computer doesn't seem to be working. The exclamation point works well enough, and really catches ones attention when it is used in the Subject line. Strange that the Inland Revenue doesn't have my address either come to think of it. Also odd that the e-mail was BCC'd to me - how come we are all owed the exact same amount? Oh well - it's free money so I guess I shouldn't worry about it...

Mixed Emotions

It's sometimes hard to keep emotions out of betting decisions, one reason why many people stay away from betting on their own teams. The spreadsheet has no emotions, and selected Newcastle United v Manchester City as the first of four XX Draw (Classic) Selections. My first reaction was to utter a couple of words not suitable for a family blog such as this, because I do have emotions, and would like to see City win the league again. Yes, I do actually remember the last time, and while I was hoping I could watch this game without any conflicting emotions, it was not to be.

Trading as high as 4.6, this was the longest priced selection of the season, and the Under 2.5 goals at 2.3 was, not surprisingly for most of us, similarly relatively high. The last non-Bundelsiga Under price in this range for these selections was the 2.3 when Bolton Wanderers and Arsenal drew 0-0 on 1st February. While a draw today would have improved the bottom line, a 1-0 or 2-0 win for City would still have been profitable overall, and as the game ended with the latter scoreline, I can't say the loss on the draw stung too much. Subscribers may have felt differently, but they were rewarded when two of the other selections came in at longish prices for another good day.

Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur was a 3.9 shot, and finishing 1-1 was a winner on the Unders too, and Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton was a 4.3 chance, which played out as a perfect 0-0 draw - and with the Under at 2.34, another nice profit there. The fourth selection of the weekend, and the 150th of the season, was the Derby della Madonnina which turned out to be something of a goal-fest with Internazionale winning 4-2 with two late goals.

I've also gone back and reviewed how many of these selections were goal-less at Half-Time and it is 58 of 150 (38.67%, 2.59). I don't often back the HT 0-0, so I'm not sure what price is typically available on these. I did back the HT 0-0 in the Cup Final at 2.88 so this might be a profitable play, but more work is needed.

Nothing to shout about on the Extended selections, although we grabbed a rather fortunate 2-2 draw with Bolton Wanderers failing to hold on to a 2-0 lead v West Bromwich Albion where a 90' went in our favour.

Ian Erskine's Lay The Draw selection produced another winner, as Lyon and Brest drew 1-1 at an excellent price of 5.3, and after 82 selections, this strategy is in third place right now.

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster found one winner (Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur), and he also had the Newcastle game. His third pick of this round of matches is the Liverpool v Chelsea game this week.

No selections received from Geoff this week, although he no doubt would have found Palermo v Chievo which finished 4-4. I was at Bingo the other night, and noticed that 44 is no longer called as Droopy Drawers, but is now announced as Geoff's Draws.

More selections in action tomorrow in France, and I'll update the table then.

Every 8th May is a Public Holiday in France to celebrate VE Day.

Yes, really.

Cup Final Trends

My first time was 1967, at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon in May. I’m talking about FA Cup Finals, and Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea was the first one I watched, notable for being the first final to allow substitutes, although I don't recall that registering at the time. Spurs won 2-1. 1967 was a big year for me. I’d attended my first ever League match the previous month, was on the verge of going to ‘big school’ (as my old – and former - headmistress referred to my grammar school), and the age of 10 is a pretty exciting time in life.

The build up to FA Cup Finals is also exciting, although in recent years the hype is less than it used to be, with the Premier League and UEFA Champions' League very much the club trophies that matter, but for most football fans, the FA Cup still holds a special place in our affections. It’s still considered a major trophy, and for fans of clubs outside the elite, along with its less illustrious younger brother, the League Cup, offers the only realistic shot at seeing their team hoist a major trophy.

Although winners from the past 20 competitions have overwhelmingly come from the elite, with the notable exception of Portsmouth in 2008, non-elite teams have at least made the final several times. Wimbledon remain the last David to beat a Goliath in 1988, but since then Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Sunderland, Sheffield Wednesday, Middlesbrough, Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Southampton, Millwall, West Ham United, Cardiff City and Stoke City have all had their chances, and, often literally, their day in the sun. For a team that is traditionally known as a Cup team, Tottenham Hotspur have been noticeably absent from Cup Finals in recent years.

But does the FA Cup Final live up to expectations? Conventional wisdom is that Cup Finals are often rather dour, tense matches, decided by a rare moment of brilliance or a defensive lapse. Certainly most finals are close. Just seven of the last twenty have been decided by more than one goal, one went to a replay (ah, the good old days), three more to extra-time, two of which were decided on penalties. That 16 Finals in this time have been decided in 90 minutes is perhaps surprising, given the closeness of most matches, but only four times have both teams scored.

Excluding the one replay, 15 Finals have finished Under 2.5 goals, with just 5 going Over. Two matches have seen a first minute goal, (both involvingChelsea), and ten have been scoreless at half-time. What recent history shows us is that goals in the first twenty minutes of each half are quite a rarity. Everton scored in the first minute in 2009, but you have to go back to 1999 for the last time a goal was scored in any of these 40 minute periods. It does rather support the theory that, fresh out of the changing room, teams are generally cautious in their approach.

While it is subjective to say which teams are ‘elite’, and Liverpool’s place in that group is certainly debatable, this Saturday’s Final is the first between two such teams since 2007. Chelsea beat Manchester United 1-0 that year, with an extra-time goal. Two years before that, Arsenal beat Manchester United on penalties after a scoreless 120 minutes, and in 2002, Arsenal beat Chelsea 2-0 with the opening goal coming at 70 minutes.

While history and statistics offer no guarantees, history does have a habit of repeating itself, and anyone expecting a low scoring game, with the first goal coming after 20 minutes has the numbers on their side. Even Stoke and Millwall (v Manchester United), Portsmouth and Aston Villa (v Chelsea), and Southampton and Newcastle (v Arsenal) have survived that long in recent seasons before conceding and going on to lose.

If there is no goal by half-time, look for the opening goal to come after 65 minutes. There does seem to be some evidence to support the theory that the changing room sees managers placing the emphasis on discipline rather than creativity in their team-talks.

The Chelsea v Liverpool fixture has certainly become quite a rivalry over the past few years, arguably dating back to 2002-03 when the two teams met on the last day of the season with fourth place, and a UEFA Champions' League spot, at stake. Chelsea prevailed that day. New owner Roman Abramovich ensured Chelsea’s financial future and Liverpool have been trying to catch up ever since. Five successive seasons (2004-2009) where the two teams met in the Champions' League only added to the rivalry.

In 2005, Chelsea and Liverpool met in the League Cup Final, with yet another first minute goal in a final involving Chelsea. Tied 1-1 after 90 minutes, Chelsea won 3-2 after extra time.

In the league fixture between these two teams back in November, Liverpool won 2-1 at Chelsea with a late (87’) winner despite Chelsea having the balance of play.

As always, I shall enjoy the tradition and spectacle of the FA Cup, and expect a 'blue' team to continue their run of success in a low scoring affair – to nil.

Subjectivity Nil

See what happens when I let subjectivity get in the way of my Cassini formula? Total carnage. Chelsea -1 wasn't even close. We had a few XX Draws yesterday too, Classics had one winner from four, and three winning unders, while the Extended selections were poor - no winning draws from three and only one under. Not the best of days.

One subscriber suggested the Full-Time 0-0 or Half-Time 0-0 might be profitable, and while I don't have the Half-Time scores (something to add next season perhaps), I do know that 0-0 has been the final score in 9.25% of selections, which works out at a price of 10.81. Exclude the Bundesliga, and the numbers get even better, 10.3% (9.72).

The longest run of games between winners is 37, which wouldn't be for everyone, but then you get spells like early February where there are five 0-0s in eight selections.

For the Extended selections, the number of 0-0s is 80 from 804 (9.95%, 10.05) - exclude the Germans again, and we have 72 from 680 (10.59%, 9.44).

Plenty of ideas to look at during the close season.

JP is back. After two years, and a day, since his last post, he has returned with an update on his betting life. Some of you may remember his strategy - to sign up for several services and make money. After a great start, things went downhill in 2010, unfortunately after JP had given up his part-time job. As JP writes, it took him six months to find a job, and:

"Whilst my former job didn’t exactly raise my spirits, it paid the bills and gave me something to do other than spend all day putting bets on and then watching how they got on, which wasn’t too well at that time".

The key for me is that if the bills are paid, your betting will be a lot less stressful, and it is much easier to make the correct decision. The temptation to cut winning trades short is strong, and is only stronger when you can lock in the mortgage payment for the month, but the decision to trade out should be based solely on whether it is value to do so, not because there's a bill to pay.

Something else that JP wrote caught my eye, which was:

Overall my profit over the lifetime of the blog was around £57,000 – very nice but that doesn’t include the subscriptions I paid during that time, which totalled £20,273 believe it or not.

So a net profit of £37,000 in 31 months, which is a more modest £1200 a month – but still a very good return considering how badly things went in the last few months.

£57,000 sounds great, and I'm not knocking it, but when you factor in expenses, which for JP were likely much more than they are for most of us, and divide the winnings by time, the figure becomes a little less exciting. 

When the Super Premium Charge was announced, lots of people took the attitude that someone having made £250,000 had made a fortune, but for anyone signing up in June 2000, that sum over ten years is less than £500 a week.

Anyway, welcome back JP, his blog was always far more interesting that the typical P&L blog.

Amateur Hour

While reading about the plan to start charging for the Geek's Toy - it is currently available "for the bargain price of £120" - I read one comment about 'two-bit traders whinging at having to pay the same prices as Gruss'.

One student was apparently moaning that he has no money, which rather begged the question "What the hell is he doing on Betfair then?"

I was not one of the Toy's users. I did try it, but for the markets I trade, and my trading style, the Betfair interface works just fine, and a bad experience trying to cancel a bet left a nasty taste that I never forgave it for - even if it was my fault for not reading the manual before playing!

Perhaps it offers advantages for horse-racing, but for my two or three outcome markets, I don't need it, even if it was free.

I've been so absorbed in the NBA play-offs and the Manchester derby that I failed to notice there were any EPL games last night, until they were in-play. 

As always happens with these things, one match turned out to have been an XX Draw Qualifier, and of course, a winner. Stoke City v Everton. 

"Not very professional" I told Mrs. C, and her reply was "well, you're not a professional". She has a point, even if her words did sting. 

I did see there were games in France, Italy and Spain, and had one Extended selection in Chievo v AS Roma which was perfect, but annoying to miss out.

Cass-Man

Several more selections today though, and so far, the decision to start sending out the 'Extended' picks has been profitable. Up 14.05 points from just 27 selections, and a totally unsustainable ROI of 52%, although the Unders on these selections are slightly down.

Chelsea v Newcastle United is the big game in England tonight, and while my prices (above) are very close to those on the exchanges (see left), my spreadsheet doesn't know that Chelsea have an even bigger game coming up on Saturday. Newcastle looked pretty poor at Wigan on Saturday, perhaps accepting that the Champions League is beyond them, and my money (a little) is on Chelsea -1 at 1.84. Chelsea did win 3-0 at Newcastle in the reverse fixture earlier in the season, and the same score again would be appreciated.

Harry left an interesting comment which I shall respond to in a future post. I need to look at a few numbers first.

Sharpe Minds Edges

My lazy Risky Business? post, courtesy of the Mail Online, attracted some attention, with a few comments from some familiar names. I wasn’t sure about including it, but since the intelligent readers this blog is targeted at know better than to use the Mail as their ‘news’ source, I felt it may well have escaped the notice of a few people who would be interested in some of the content.

BigAl even managed to make me smile with his comment that, for a while, it looked as if a piece about William Hill might finish without a reference to Graham Sharpe, but true to form, there was his name. Ladbrokes used to have a similar PR representative, Ron Pollard, but he is now retired and living in Pinner last I heard. Not somewhere I will be looking at to live out my old age incidentally.

Webbo’s observation was that the article ‘shows just what the average Joe is up against’, to which Mark Iverson responded that the article can be viewed in two ways – the way Webbo stated, or alternatively “look at the number of opportunities!” 

Mark's closing comment was that “I guess it’s down to whether you’re a glass half full or glass half empty type of person”.

Well, not exactly. While it is all very well to be optimistic when it comes to non-exchange gambling, it’s probably more important to be realistic, and the logical conclusion is that with all the resources at the bookmaker’s disposal, any success by an individual is likely to be very short-lived, as the article mentions.

The bookmakers make the rules, and if doesn't suit them to let you play, or they only want you to play for peanuts, then they have that right and they are not shy about limiting you.

As BigAl noted, it “takes a fair amount of effort to take advantage of the opportunities… in terms of constantly having to open new accounts”. Indeed it does. Bookmakers know who the ‘sharps’ are, and they know their street and IP addresses. New accounts using the same IP address are not going to last for long. In my opinion, unless the rewards have a good chance of being available at least for a while, it’s simply not worth the effort needed to open these accounts.

One of the beauties of the exchange concept for me, was that winning accounts do not get closed down. They may do in the future, but for now they don’t, and while the commission charged to winning accounts may seem excessive, when you consider the alternative of not being allowed to play, well, at least the choice as to whether or not to continue is yours. 

When Ladbrokes and Coral closed my accounts down in the 80s, I had no alternative other than to quit. I could have opened new accounts in other names, (and that was a lot easier back then), but it’s a road to nowhere. Sooner or later you run out of relatives and I don’t have many friends for some reason.

The suggestion from Mark that "by covering so many markets the bookies open up many more doors for punters to gain an edge" is definitely optimistic but the reality is that the door of opportunity will remain open only if it is profitable for the bookmaker. New 'opportunities' are not offered on a whim, but after much research and are managed closely. If a few individuals 'gain an edge', the bookies will make adjustments, restrict the entry of regular winners into that market, and if they are losing to many, the door will be closed altogether - or the over-round inflated to the point where no one can win. 

Las Vegas casinos don't add Blackjack tables to provide more opportunities to gamblers. They are there to generate another income stream, and as with successful sports bettors, successful Blackjack players will find it hard to play. I'm not saying that short-term, the bookies can't be beaten, just that bookies are bad losers, and winning money from them long-term is not realistic.

An edge with no place to use it is pretty much worthless. The ability to ‘get on’ is an essential piece of the puzzle. You might be the world's number one expert on synchronised swimming, but try making much money from it. 

Bookies do make mistakes, the hole-in-one golf story is one great example, and I believe some have already paid out on Manchester United to win the league this season, but they do not keep losing money to the same individuals.

Opportunities? Yes, at first sight, but are they viable long-term opportunities for decent profits? No. It has nothing to do with one's level of optimism, which by nature I would expect to be on the high side for most readers, more to do with realism and understanding that bookmakers are there to make a profit, not to provide you with a source of income week after week. It won't happen.

On a slightly different topic, Webbo wrote:

"Thanks for your insight into your staking too. It's interesting that you say punting profits are more value when you factor in the hourly rate as it's for this reason I'm trying to turn my attentions more to these. It's obviously much harder but if I'm honest I am starting to resent the amount of my free time I spend betting in-play and I do fear each time another blog opens of a young person who aims to make a living from in-play trading. Their lives will consist of staring at a screen 24-7 and if I had to price it up, I'd say it's 1.01 that they don't make anything close to a living out of it."

I have to agree with Webbo's further thoughts. In-play trading does take a toll on your personal life, and at any other time in my life, I wouldn't have been able or willing to put the necessary hours in to be profitable. Trading is perfect for boring old bastards like myself. In fact, while I don't know too many Super Premium Charge payers, the ones I do know of are all 'men of a certain age', with baldness an apparent pre-requisite for success!

April Blues

Nothing more than a curiosity, but after entering 3,444 matches in the spreadsheet, I happened to notice that the Under and Over 2.5 goals markets are all even.

I watched the game, but it didn't register at the time that Blackburn Rovers managed not one shot, and all of one corner during yesterday's game at Tottenham Hotspur. For anyone tracking Blackburn's previous away games, it comes as no surprise with their performances very poor over at their last six away games.

With Manchester City now favourites to win the league this season, there is a lot of money hoping for a Newcastle win against them next week.

My usual April playoff disaster in the NBA last night, where I chose the wrong Los Angeles game to trade. While getting my beauty sleep as the Memphis Grizzlies rolled over the Clippers, the latter staged something of a miraculous recovery after trading at 1,000. Down by 27, they came back to win by 1 - and I missed it!

The Lakers game was expensive for me. The high scoring Nuggets chose the game when my money was on them to be not-quite-so high scoring. First losing month since March 2011, so I can't complain, but April just isn't my month. I should have stayed in Maui.