Sunday, 6 May 2012

Mixed Emotions

It's sometimes hard to keep emotions out of betting decisions, one reason why many people stay away from betting on their own teams. The spreadsheet has no emotions, and selected Newcastle United v Manchester City as the first of four XX Draw (Classic) Selections. My first reaction was to utter a couple of words not suitable for a family blog such as this, because I do have emotions, and would like to see City win the league again. Yes, I do actually remember the last time, and while I was hoping I could watch this game without any conflicting emotions, it was not to be.

Trading as high as 4.6, this was the longest priced selection of the season, and the Under 2.5 goals at 2.3 was, not surprisingly for most of us, similarly relatively high. The last non-Bundelsiga Under price in this range for these selections was the 2.3 when Bolton Wanderers and Arsenal drew 0-0 on 1st February. While a draw today would have improved the bottom line, a 1-0 or 2-0 win for City would still have been profitable overall, and as the game ended with the latter scoreline, I can't say the loss on the draw stung too much. Subscribers may have felt differently, but they were rewarded when two of the other selections came in at longish prices for another good day.

Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur was a 3.9 shot, and finishing 1-1 was a winner on the Unders too, and Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton was a 4.3 chance, which played out as a perfect 0-0 draw - and with the Under at 2.34, another nice profit there. The fourth selection of the weekend, and the 150th of the season, was the Derby della Madonnina which turned out to be something of a goal-fest with Internazionale winning 4-2 with two late goals.

I've also gone back and reviewed how many of these selections were goal-less at Half-Time and it is 58 of 150 (38.67%, 2.59). I don't often back the HT 0-0, so I'm not sure what price is typically available on these. I did back the HT 0-0 in the Cup Final at 2.88 so this might be a profitable play, but more work is needed.

Nothing to shout about on the Extended selections, although we grabbed a rather fortunate 2-2 draw with Bolton Wanderers failing to hold on to a 2-0 lead v West Bromwich Albion where a 90' went in our favour.

Ian Erskine's Lay The Draw selection produced another winner, as Lyon and Brest drew 1-1 at an excellent price of 5.3, and after 82 selections, this strategy is in third place right now.

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster found one winner (Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur), and he also had the Newcastle game. His third pick of this round of matches is the Liverpool v Chelsea game this week.

No selections received from Geoff this week, although he no doubt would have found Palermo v Chievo which finished 4-4. I was at Bingo the other night, and noticed that 44 is no longer called as Droopy Drawers, but is now announced as Geoff's Draws.

More selections in action tomorrow in France, and I'll update the table then.

Every 8th May is a Public Holiday in France to celebrate VE Day.

Yes, really.

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