Saturday, 19 May 2012

The £90million Match

IMV, it's rare for someone who can make money betting not being able to make considerably more money doing something else. The exception will be people who temperament means they are bad at suffering fools or working for others.
So wrote a long-time (10+ years) member of the Betfair forum recently. I have to agree, at least with the first sentence. The second sentence has some merit too. The skill set required to be successful at sports betting are in high demand in business, and as much money there may seem to be in the sports markets, for most of us, there's a lot more to be made in more traditional trades. Askari's second sentence suggested that the rare exception of a person who can make more from sports betting than he can elsewhere, is the type of person who does well working in isolation. The IT world used to be full of such characters, less so nowadays, but it still has more than its fair share perhaps, and it's interesting to me that a number of successful sports traders seem to be from this background.
Golden Ball

Play-offs have been with us for 26 years now, hard to believe, and today's game is the 23rd 'final' where the prize is promotion to the top division, and the riches that accompany it. There is no single sporting event in the world more valuable to the winners - an estimated £90million. That's quite a lot!

West Ham United lost in 2004, and won the following year, while Blackpool defeated Cardiff City in their one appearance in 2010.

Five of the 22 matches have been scoreless at Half-Time,  (implied price 4.4), and four have gone to extra time, with two being decided on penalties. 62 goals in those 22 matches, (excluding extra-time), and 11-11 for the over / under 2.5 goal market. The game tends to be feast or famine, one finished 0-0, and eight finished 1-0 while five have seen five or more goals - including the last two seasons.

West Ham certainly had the better of Blackpool during the season, winning 4-0 at home and 4-1 away, and the odds of 1.98 on West Ham to win in 90 minutes look generous. 1.56 on promotion for West Ham if you fancy they'll need more time.

Blackpool reportedly failed to sell their ticket allocation, so maybe their fans aren't too hopeful of a repeat win.

My son is a Chelsea fan though, so I have to hope Blackpool can win to keep the coincidences going before the big game later which I have already written up here

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