Saturday, 26 May 2012

Play-Off Time

My latest piece, on the upcoming Western Conference NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder is now published over at Betting Expert.

When the Eastern Conference finalists are determined, I plan to add another post on that series also, and of course, for the NBA Finals themselves.

I am also working on a post about the very interesting study that Peter Nordsted sent me via a comment the other day. The paper is titled Why Are Gambling Markets Organised So Differently From Financial Markets? and while most of the data is drawn from the United States and the NFL in particular, and the findings are more pertinent to the US Sports Books rather than to UK bookmakers or exchanges, it is an interesting read as you might expect with its author being the controversial Steven D Levitt. My post on this topic will also likely be posted over at Betting Expert in the next few days, so stay tuned.

When I find time, I shall also be updating my numbers and plans for the XX Draws next season. I have had a request to accept payment via Moneybookers and will take a look at this.

I had one other comment which was this:
Hope you are well. Unrelated comment here but I seem to remember a blog post you did a while back saying that you had a few football trading manuals from some scammers that you were wiling to send on to anyone who wanted them. It may well be a long time ago you said that or it may well be a dream I had last night but if it's the former, could you be so kind as to send them to me.
Unfortunately, or really not that unfortunately (as they are all rubbish), I lost these 'manuals' some time ago with a disk failure, so I no longer have them available. It would certainly be a dream were any of these systems to have had any value, but they don't. Save your money. Typically 50% of the pages are taken up with explaining how Betfair works, accompanied by screen-shots of various quality, followed by a statistically unsupported claim that after x number of minutes, it becomes value to make bet y. There may be a couple of images showing a match or two where this worked, but the truth is that any supposed glaring inefficiency such as these across football markets would be recognised almost immediately, and would cease to exist.

Two very evenly matched teams in action at Wembley as I write this post. A small bet on Sheffield United based on their form, both season long and recent, and a small bet on the Under 2.5 goals. Sheffield United did lose 0-3 at Huddersfield Town back in September, but eight months is a long time in football. On the other side, Huddersfield have the benefit of experience, having lost this fixture last season to Peterborough United who scored three times after the 78'. 

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