Wednesday, 2 May 2012

Amateur Hour

While reading about the plan to start charging for the Geek's Toy - it is currently available "for the bargain price of £120" - I read one comment about 'two-bit traders whinging at having to pay the same prices as Gruss'.

One student was apparently moaning that he has no money, which rather begged the question "What the hell is he doing on Betfair then?"

I was not one of the Toy's users. I did try it, but for the markets I trade, and my trading style, the Betfair interface works just fine, and a bad experience trying to cancel a bet left a nasty taste that I never forgave it for - even if it was my fault for not reading the manual before playing!

Perhaps it offers advantages for horse-racing, but for my two or three outcome markets, I don't need it, even if it was free.

I've been so absorbed in the NBA play-offs and the Manchester derby that I failed to notice there were any EPL games last night, until they were in-play. 

As always happens with these things, one match turned out to have been an XX Draw Qualifier, and of course, a winner. Stoke City v Everton. 

"Not very professional" I told Mrs. C, and her reply was "well, you're not a professional". She has a point, even if her words did sting. 

I did see there were games in France, Italy and Spain, and had one Extended selection in Chievo v AS Roma which was perfect, but annoying to miss out.

Several more selections today though, and so far, the decision to start sending out the 'Extended' picks has been profitable. Up 14.05 points from just 27 selections, and a totally unsustainable ROI of 52%, although the Unders on these selections are slightly down.

Chelsea v Newcastle United is the big game in England tonight, and while my prices (above) are very close to those on the exchanges (see left), my spreadsheet doesn't know that Chelsea have an even bigger game coming up on Saturday. Newcastle looked pretty poor at Wigan on Saturday, perhaps accepting that the Champions League is beyond them, and my money (a little) is on Chelsea -1 at 1.84. Chelsea did win 3-0 at Newcastle in the reverse fixture earlier in the season, and the same score again would be appreciated.

Harry left an interesting comment which I shall respond to in a future post. I need to look at a few numbers first.

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