Monday, 21 May 2012


No luck for the XX Draws today in their final fling for the 2011-12 season, with three Classic selections all ending up as one-goal margins, as did the one Extended selection. The last round of fixtures is always dangerous, with teams looking to win titles, or places in Europe or avoid relegation, but with an objective selection system, they all have to be recorded. Two selections included the top two teams. Montpellier needed just a point at already relegated Auxerre for example, and won 2-1 for their first ever French Championship. Paris St Germain needed to win at Lorient to have any chance, and did just that, copying Montpellier in going a goal down before coming back to win.

Caen and Dijon join Auxerre in Ligue 2 next season, Bastia, Stade de Reims and EspĂ©rance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne (I may refer to them simply as Troyes from now on) replace them. Reims and Troyes are both from the Champagne-Ardenne region of France, and Ajaccio's narrow escape means two teams from Corsica in Ligue 1 next season.

And with the end of Ligue 1 action, the season ends for me, and the final Tipster Table standings are:

It should be noted that the results for Football Elite are for their Recommended Bet (matches) selections only, and does not include their season long bets on League Winners, Relegation or Top Goalscorer, as these are of a completely different nature to the Match Odds bets.  Matt's official results when including these are:
Bets 100, Winners 42, Draws 33, Losers 25, Staked 99.00pts, Profit/loss + 14.75 pts, ROI 14.8%, ROC 59.0%.
The XX Classic selections backed as Unders finished well clear in the end, with no losing streak longer than four. Much less volatile than backing the Draw, with its losing sequence of 16 not for everyone. The XX Extended selections also fared well on the Unders, but prices were only kept from mid-April so no conclusions are to be jumped to here, and the longest losing streak of three is from a limited sample. I'll be updating all the stats on these in the next few days, including taking a look at the HT 0-0 results.

The consensus from subscribers is that I should include the more numerous Extended selections. This will likely slightly reduce the ROI, but it is the ROBG (Rate Of Bank Growth) that is important, and the importance of the ROI can be exaggerated.

Backing the 'Lay The Draw' selection was a profitable strategy, and Geoff's Draws fared very well over 137 selections.

If anyone is interested in pitting their wits against me and others next season, let me know. Tracking these picks isn't too onerous, and it gives me something to post on each week.

No champagne for me last night, but a bit of a headache today following Chelsea's heroics in Munich, and a few too many beers. Unfortunate outcome for Tottenham Hotspur, and the lack of Champions League football there next season may well be a serious blow to the club's future. I'm not sure UEFA envisioned a situation where the champions of Europe would finish outside the top four in their domestic league, but this is now the third time it has happened. Twice in England (where Everton were controversially granted a reprieve and allowed to enter) and once in Spain, when Real Zaragoza finished fourth and missed out. I have a feeling that RdiM may well miss out on the manager position, as Chelsea will be looking for a proven manager to ensure that they stay in the top four in England. Too much money at stake, and while di Matteo has had Chelsea performing superbly in Cups, I'm not sure that will be enough to convince the owner that he is the man for Chelsea to move forward with. We shall see. 

As expected, the mention of this blog over at Ian Erskine's blog yesterday resulted in a surge of hits, and the 400,000th hit will come some time tomorrow (Monday). It seems like only yesterday when I was paying out on the 333,333 hits competition! Perhaps a half-million competition is in order? 

1 comment:

gundulf said...

It is very unfortunate for any team that finishes fourth to find themselves dumped out of the Champions League due to a team winning the competition yet failing to qualify through their own league endeavours.

Let's not get too emotional about Spurs, though. The fact they finished fourth has much more to do with the fashion in which they imploded after 'Arry's acquital than with what other teams accomplished.

Speaking as a Chelsea supporter of some 40 years it would have given me a lot more satisfaction to have won both the Premiership and the Champions League. Failing that, it would have been far more satisfying to have dumped the Gooners out of next year's competition than Spurs. Such is life :-)