Thursday, 13 January 2011

Tissue Compiling

A nice lay of Liverpool helped to ease the pain of the Premium Charge and I have the latest update to the ratings spreadsheet to thank. Prior to last weekend, I would have gone with the strong draw on this game, but I have spent some time improving it so that when I enter the teams names, along with the predicted superiority, it also now automatically calculates odds for the games. Prior to this, the calculation was a time-consuming task that I could only do for specific games.

It should get more accurate as I get more data into the spreadsheet. This is only my second full season, and some of the numbers are drawn from a small sample, so care still needs to be exercised.

Take the Wigan Athletic v Fulham game this Saturday for example. Wigan are -0.24, and my odds are H: 2.56 D 3.1 A 3.5. They compare relatively closely to Betfair's 2.62, 3.3, 3.1, with my draw price shorter because at -0.24, this is a weak draw, and weak draws have been hitting at a higher rate than they 'should'.

The Merseyside derby? Ignoring the 'Dalglish homecoming' factor, and Liverpool are -0.34 and the odds for me are H: 2.4, D: 3.59, A: 3.4. Betfair have 2.32, 3.35, 3.65. Prety close, although I suspect that I need to adjust more for recent form. I could be joining the Lay The Draw club on this one!

I'm also having a look at the Over / Under 2.5 goals markets - still lots of improvements to be made, but it's promising - and fun.

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