Friday 8 July 2011

Paranoia, Passion And Paulo

When it comes to tipping services, the first reason in the comment below may have some merit, but I'm not buying into the second. I somehow doubt that bookies are trawling the blog world to see who is using what tipping services, and limiting accounts based on their findings.
I’m not a big one for talking about which tipster services I use for a couple of reasons. The first one is that if does look like you have a personal interest in the promotion of the service (more of that another time) and secondly the bookmakers are a bit sneaky sometimes and could limit your account if you talk openly about using services which are on their hit list for having the temerity to actually provide winners!
Call me old fashioned, but I suspect the bookies know from your betting profile what services you might be using, and for the most part, love it. Your account will get restricted or closed if you find winners consistently, wherever they come from, and you can bet that the selections of any consistently winning tipping services are soon known to them, and the prices available trimmed anyway. If you use an exchange and win consistently, then you simply hand over up to 60% of your winnings.

I seem to have acquired a new name - Paul. Over at Interactive Sports Investor, I read this today:
Earlier we touched on the point that the decision to exit should be based firstly on the trading plan you have set yourself and secondly the way in which you trade. For example Paul Cassini could not have said it better in his post over on his great blog Green All Over. In a nutshell Paul is a value trader and therefore his exit point is when the price you are trading no longer offers value. Paul has been trading on Betfair for a number of years and has created his own edge by working out whether he thinks a price on offer is value. He does this with a combination of his own odds compiling and a great understanding of the games he is involved in and the phases they go through both on and off the pitch (the Betfair traders). His edge seems to be very successful and he is passionate about his hobby that also makes him money.
Well it hasn't been making me much lately. With quality football in short supply, I've been dabbling on the Copa America, and not too successfully. Colombia's 1-0 win over 10 man Costa Rica cost me, and in their second game, Colombia managed to hold Argentina to a draw for another big loss. My own stupid fault though. When there is a short priced favourite, you get several minutes at the start of a game where the price tends not to move much - in other words an essentially low-risk bet, but at the point where I usually switch to lay the favourite, I held off because, in my 'expert' opinion, Argentina looked value for the win. Of course, the goal never came. Should be a nice rebate from the Premium Charge next week though. Oh wait, there is no rebate policy. How is that fair?!


Mark Iverson said...

Paul?!?! Lol!

geoffm said...

Come on Paul!- if your going to paste my words up the least you can do is give me a name check!