In Sultan Our Intelligence

As predicted here, the Sultan is back. I wrote then that the strategy would include:

Re-appear on the blog, and tell everyone that there is / will be a life-changing event (first ever girlfriend / first sexual encounter (at least one with someone else present in the room) / marriage / pregnancy / medical crisis / divorce / upset stomach / broken fingernail etc.) and that you are considering a return. If this can be timed for some time towards the end of the year and a new tennis season, then so much the better.

And sure enough, courtesy of my Tennis correspondent "On-Off", I receive news that he is back with another, final, last chance. In typical Sultan style, we read - at the start of a new year / tennis season:

This time last year, I knew what my immediate future held. I was a single guy with no responsibilities. I had enough disposable income to do pretty much what I wanted to within reason, no one to answer to, no debt and a plan to just keep doing what I was doing. Now, I have a mortgage, other people to think about, fiscal responsibilities, a joint bank account, DIY to perform (though I'll probably pay someone else to do it!), in-laws to placate and a whole raft of future plans that need to be set in motion.

I love the qualifier 'within reason'. The fact is that the Sultan's claims to be wealthy beyond the wildest dreams of most of us, are complete bollocks.

A cursory look at his timeline proves it. Assuming his posted monthly results are genuine, and I have no reason to believe they are not, in 2012 he had wins of £1,304, £1,375, £1,562, £570, £630, £703 - and he wrote in August of 2013 that his usual monthly win size "a year ago" was ~ £500. An average monthly profit of  £1,024 in 2012 would make an annual income of less than £13,000, and that average may be high, given that it is human nature to post the better results over the losses.

For 2013, there are six monthly profits posted of £2,357, £3,909, £5,259, £5,832, £2,008 and £2,373. This was the year of the court-siding advantage though, so it's not surprising that the average increased to £3,623, although surprising that was all it increased by. There was one outlier month where a £10k profit was made, so the annual profit would have been around £50,000.

Now these are decent profits if you are a part-time player, but in lieu of a full-time job, with salary, paid holidays and all the benefits that go with it, it's nothing to shout about. It certainly does not come anywhere close to being comfortable for years to come. It's only a few months ago (August 2014), the Sultan was saying:

I also am more profitable and financially stable for the first time.

When he writes things like:

..even though my debt worries are long gone and I will be comfortable for years to come - barring a disaster. But what happens if there is a disaster? I've lived on the edge for a few years now and have come through it but things can change. I think more and more about what I'm going to do with the money I've accumulated and how I'm going to invest it in future.

I think we can easily see that he is one step removed from reality. By his own admission in his latest post, he has yet to hit the Super Premium Charge. Interesting that for someone so willing to share personal details from his life with us, he now claims to have a mortgage, and hints at being married! The meeting where he produced evidence of his income would have been an interesting one and tales of the wedding presumably held at some Scottish Castle with thousands of guests and a honeymoon around the world cruise would have been provided.

But no, not a word. We've moved from a rented flat, to a mortgage, from a single man, to a girl-friend - fiancee - pregnant fiancee - wife - fatherhood - in the blink of an eye.

The claim to have 'fiscal responsibilities', only adds manure on the already growing pile. 'Fiscal' is a word defined as:

Relating to government revenue, especially taxes:

I really hope the Sultan is not a consultant for David Cameron and his ilk. There are too many holes and inconsistencies on the Sultan's claims, and if you read his blog from the beginning, you can see them easily enough. Hejik actually did a nice expose about a year ago - an update would be good!

My point was, as soon as it's mentioned that investment is sought, you can no longer believe anything that you read on the blog in terms of profits. It's impossible to maintain the credibility once your blog becomes solely an advert for potential investment - you simply won't talk about the bad days any more and that's exactly what happened in this case.

As I say, it's not a personal thing, just my once-held opinion and I'm adult enough to reconsider that opinion from time to time. At the moment, I don't think my post is all that unreasonable.

The concern with such a Walter Mitty character is that he is using his tales of fantasy to part the less diligent with their money and sell them his Sultan's High Intensity Trading (SHIT) manual. I think that's the name. The latest post is called Last Chance Saloon, although I somehow doubt that it really is. Ironically, one definition of Last Chance Saloon is:

The last chance one has to improve or otherwise help oneself before decision over ones future is made.

I suspect this says more about the Sultan than he intended!

In this case, the metaphorical use refers to the Sultan Tennis Trading Guide, which will only be available at the current low price up to the end of the Australian Open on February 1st. After this date, the price will increase by 25%, so if you are looking to start your tennis trading journey or have a New Year's Resolution to get stuck into tennis trading in 2015, getting the guide this month will save you a substantial amount.

Sounds great, except for one problem is - it's not very good:

I am a member of the Sultan tennis academy and I don't think he deserves to be on the hall of shame. However, I would not purchase the product again and other members' have told me the same. I have nothing negative to say about the Sultan but I don't want members of the public to part with their hard earned money for a product that won't provide the value you want. The strategies are well written but can be found on ebay or youtube as they are common knowledge and the email coaching service can be replaced by a book such as Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas or asking other sports traders via twitter or blogs about how they trade.

And:

I would like everyone to know that the price of the trading academy for one year is £500 which is very expensive for an ebook and a few emails a month.

It is also no coincidence that the sultan needs new members, so starts blogging again and posting wins attempting to entice people to part with their hard earned money? If he's winning so much then why does he need your £500?

Lastly, if you were learning to drive, be a doctor or another profession and you emailed me your problems, do you think that I would be able to teach you how to be a doctor or how to drive without seeing you live in action? I doubt that the sultan's emails, which you will only receive if you email him and if you don't email him then you could go through your 1 year in the academy without receiving a single email from him, can eradicate your trading issues then think again.

I hope that people don't commit the same error as I did and become a member because I regret wasting £500 which could have be used for other purposes.

And from Hejik, back in August:

I don't think it's any coincidence that the whoring has begun again although he's at least trying to be a little more subtle about it this time - presumably thinks people aren't going to read between the lines.

Cassini made some observations to this effect over on his blog and I'd have to concur with a lot of what he said.

I may come back to Sultan at some point as I'd like to put some of the first-hand experiences described here into sharper focus.

If anyone else has parted with their money and has input, good or bad, I would be very interested. Again, it is human nature to not want to admit to mistakes, but I have yet to read one favourable review of the manual / mentoring service / trading academy.

Finally, a note that Hejik is not my best friend ever, and we are not in partnership together to take over the world of betting. Just because you mention a name on a blog post, doesn't mean you agree with everything they have ever done or said, or will ever do or say. I'm not sure why I feel the need to mention this, but one final comment from Hejik's post:

I know you posted twice but I only published once and unfortunately I had to resort to moderation to deter Mad Jonny.

Who might that be I wonder?