Monday, 7 August 2017

2016-17 Big Five Review

As the 2017-18 season gets underway, I thought I'd take a look at last season relative to the previous 10 seasons. It was unusual in many ways.

First the relative decline in goals per game in the Bundesliga, which from 2006-16 led the "Big Five" - the others being the EPL, Serie A, Ligue 1, and La Liga - every season in this category, averaging 2.88 goals per game.

Last season saw the Bundesliga drop to third, behind Serie A and La Liga, but this relative drop was due to an increase in goals in Italy and Spain rather than a decline in German output where goals remained very much in line with their average.

Home goals per game in these three leagues were all at 1.66, but the Away goals in Serie A jumped by 17.3% from a ten year average of 1.10 to 1.30, while in La Liga, they increased by 12.8%, from 1.13 to 1.28.   

More goals means fewer draws, so it's no surprise that the Draws in Italy dropped from an average of 27.2% to just 21%, while the increase in Away goals pushed Away wins up from an average of 26.5% to 30.5%. No edge on backing Aways blindly though, as this strategy would have lost 39.36 points on the season although all the losses were on the longer-shots (IP < 0.3). +13.99 points sub 0.3.  

Over the ten seasons 2006-16, the average Home win percentage in all five leagues was 46.2%. 

In every league last season, this average was comfortably exceeded:
This trend towards Home wins was also seen in England's Championship which went from an average of 43.4% Home wins (2006-16) to 47.5% last season, while Draws dropped from 28% to 23.6%.

Whether any of these changes will become trends or merely blips remains to be seen, but it's interesting watching how leagues evolve over time. 

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