Saturday, 12 August 2017

Cusp Selections

Last October, I mentioned one of the problems with playing a system based on Implied Probabilities. 

With lines being dynamic, qualifiers for a system like this will always be subject to change, and the list will vary depending on where you take your line from, and when you take it.
As Doc Sportello found yesterday, qualifiers can come and go. The Kansas City Royals were a qualifier for the T-Bone System with a price shorter than -140 (1.71) at whatever site he was using, yet by the time of first pitch were, according to the web site I use, -135 (1.74). Incidentally, they are currently qualifiers again today, at -145 (1.69). 

The result of such price movements is that you find yourself backing teams that end up not being system qualifiers, and miss out on others that do end up as qualifiers. As I wrote in that October post (in regard to College Football prices):
Sometimes these line moves will work out for you, sometimes they won't.
Teams that ended up in the -125 (1.8) to -140 range this season are currently in profit, by a massive 0.19 points, but how many of those shortened into that range, and how many drifted into it, I have no idea.

Last night also saw a rare loss for the Rhenium System (IP 0.75+) with the San Diego Padres (again) failing to follow the script. 

I will not be mentioning football for a while. 

1 comment:

SportsPicksSystem said...

One way to mitigate the dynamic lines issue is to set yourself strict rules. For instance to determine if a MLB team is an underdog, the team needs to be priced at least at 2.000 (+100) at Pinnacle even if you don't play at that bookmaker. I choose Pinnacle because it's the sharpest book on the market which make it a good reference for odds.

BTW do you take the bookmaker margin when calculating the Implied Probabilities?