Monday 15 October 2018

Shorties, T-Bones, Small Dogs and the Big 6 Draw

I promised an update on the baseball regular season systems we've been following, and here they are, a little later than planned after another few days in hospital. Surgery in three weeks will hopefully resolve the issue, as four hospitalisations in seven months is getting more than a little tiresome. Not to mention that I am not allowed any alcohol for at least five weeks which really is serious stuff.   

The MLB 'Shorties' system ended the regular season up 79.85 points on the Money Line, and 18.95 points on the Run Line. 

This is the fifth consecutive season where this strategy has been profitable, and the number of selections is rapidly increasing.  
The T-Bone system was also profitable again, although for an even numbered year the 22.07 points was a little disappointing!  
This is another system where the number of selections increased substantially. 

Back in the summer of 2015, this blog became a little obsessed with baseball's pitching superstar Clayton Kershaw, specifically with the idea of opposing him. 

At 30 years old, he's not as good as he was, and his regular season ERA this year was the highest since 2010, so it might not be the worst idea to oppose him in the playoffs where he has historically famously under-performed, with the Dodgers having 'only' a 12-8 record and just 5-5 on the road in games where Kershaw starts. Kershaw's own record in play-off games is a very average 8-7. In NLCS games, his record is 2-4.

Friday night's opening game of the NLCS saw Kershaw achieve something no other left-handed pitcher has done in a play-off game, which was to give up a home run to another left-handed pitcher, and at 2.30, a nice profit on the night as the Milwaukee Brewers won 6-5.

In College Football, the basic Small Road Dogs system has moved into profit with a 41-34-2 record, an ROI of 6.1%. In Conference games the record is 29-20-2 and an ROI of 14.4%. Adding one filter boosts the ROIs of these selections to 17.6% and 36% respectively:
The NFL had a quiet weekend, which was fortunate because we only had one winner from three selections, which takes the season record to 13-14-1. Divisional games are 5-3-0 which at least puts us in the green by 0.14 points.

The overdue Big 6 Draw System finally hit with two consecutive winners, to take the system into profit on the season. The longest losing run since 2012 ended at 14, but the big picture is that this basic system is up 15.80 points with an ROI of 8.7% in six (plus the current) seasons.
If you exclude matches where the 'true' probability of the draw is less than 0.25, as you should, the system is up over 33 points and has an ROI of 22.0% over this period.

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