Friday, 19 April 2019

Shorter Odds, Greater Margin

Last night's Los Angles Clippers v Golden State Warriors official total of 236.5 points was the highest in database history, which goes back to the 2002-03 season, but Overs came in at 237.

The previous high (234 points) was Tuesday night's Game 2 between the same two teams in Oakland, which went Over by just 32 points!  

As you can see from the screenshot, I was on last night at 235.5 points, for a relatively comfortable win at 2.08.

Incidentally, I really don't like the way Betfair do their total and handicap markets these days - they are certainly almost impossible to trade in-play, and even getting on pregame is confusing. 

There was some discussion on Twitter recently regarding Pinnacle's margin increasing in the larger football markets, the top divisions in France, Germany, Italy, Spain plus the top two in England.

@entwolken produced a chart showing the margin increasing from 2% between 2014-17, to 2.2% / 2.4% over the past two seasons. 

Pinnacle emerged in 2012, and based on closing odds the over-round from 2012-17 was 102.08%, in 2017-18 was 102.11% and in 2018-19 is currently 102.33%. 

For the most part, the higher margins are seen on matches with a hot favourite, something I pointed out several months ago

Of the highest 52 margins (left) in the last five seasons, only two had a favourite priced over 1.4.

44 of them are from this season, 8 from 2017-18, and none from 2014-17.

With more 1.2 or shorter favourites in the past two seasons, than in the previous five combined, it's not hugely surprising to see the average margin increase, but if you stay away from matches with short favourites, the over-round is still only 102.1%. 

I say 'only' because we are now spoiled. Back in 2000-01, the figure was 112.54%!   

And for those of you wondering about the outcome of backing all those 1.2 and shorter favourites, you'd be up 3.62 points, an ROI of 3.73%. 

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