Tuesday, 9 April 2019

Nerds and NCAAB

With no Draws in the Premier League since March 16th, the current 17.85% reflects the fewest in the top division since 1931-32 (17.75%), and second fewest since 1904-05 (16.99%). 

Away wins currently at 33.23%, the highest in 120 seasons of top tier football.
Some may be excited about the outcome of the title race, while others are more interested in the battle for Champions League places or survival, but it takes a special kind of nerd to get excited watching the Draw and Away percentages reach new lows and highs respectively.

Despite the Draw drought, backing this outcome in qualifying Big Six matches is again profitable this season, at least for now, with an ROI of 17.5% from a meagre 15 selections, but in the Pinnacle era has a more realistic ROI of 16.9% from 142 selections.

In College Basketball, it's the National Championship game in a few hours, and the Virginia Cavaliers are favoured by just 1.5 points over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. 

Since 2010, as far back as I can go, -1.5 favourites in NCAA tournament games have a 14-9 record ATS with a slight edge to Unders. 

However, the total is currently around 120.5 which is very low for an expected close game, where the total is usually around 137 points so I'm on Overs.   

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