Tuesday 18 January 2022

Comparing Apples

It was a rough weekend for Road teams in the NFL Wildcard Weekend matches, with only one of the six teams winning or covering (San Francisco 49ers who did both). If you are playing the Small Road 'Dogs in the playoffs, then at least if you followed my advice to stick to the NFC you had this winner and just the one loss, so minimal damage. As I've mentioned before, playoffs are a different beast to regular season games, and with far less data, so caution is advised.

Wildcard games are historically good for road teams, with a record since 2001 of 48-33-5, before this season and 21-13 for those in the Small 'Dog range. 

We have another slate of matches next weekend with the four Divisional Round matches. All four matches currently look like they may be Small Road 'Dogs, with the NFC games being the Green Bay Packers v San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Los Angeles Rams (+3) games. The Packers have the additional advantage of not playing this past weekend, reward for the best regular season record in their Conference.

Historically Division games aren't great for Road teams with a 42-41-1 record against the spread which isn't profitable. For matched in the Small 'Dogs range, the record is even worse at 13-14-1. 

The AFC games are the rested Tennessee Titans v Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) and Kansas City Chiefs v Buffalo Bills (+2.5).

Currently all four matches are Small Road 'Dog qualifiers, but two are just a half point move away from exclusion.

It's also important to note that after being consistent from 2002 to 2019, the NFL format has changed for the last two seasons with the playoffs expanding last season, and this season with the addition of a regular season Week 17, and these changes make it questionable whether we are comparing apples with apples. Small changes can sometimes have unforeseen consequences.  

As I write this, the stock markets are a sea of red, with only $TSLA presenting a glimmer of hope as it flirts with being positive on the day. 

As I mentioned last week Tesla has scheduled its Q4 earnings call for next Wednesday, January 26th.

One barrier to an even higher Tesla stock price is that some mutual funds can only buy a company if its credit rating is at least "investment grade". 

The importance of a company's credit rating was seen when Tesla was given a BB+ rating in October last year, and the stock jumped 21.6% in three days. 

If the Q4 results are as expected, (cash flow, low debt, strong EBITDA margins > 18%), it is possible that in February, S&P Global Ratings may raise the rating to "Investment" grade (BBB-). 

The 18% figure is currently easily being beaten, and interesting that Tesla is the only $1 trillion company that is currently "junk" rated!  

By way of comparison, $AAPL (Apple) is rated AAA so there is still plenty of room for improvement.  

1 comment:

Dr Tsouts said...

Currently with a 44-24 record for me and a ROI almost 29% i am happy to leave it here and wait for next season! But this is not the whole picture. I also played straight wins with a record 21-19-1 (there was one tie,right?) and an exrtaordinary 39% ROI! Thanks Cassini!