Monday 17 January 2022

Killer Villa

Possibly some very good news this afternoon, with delek reporting that:
as per their email seems like Killersports is back with full functionality

A quick look at their site and it does appear that at least some of my old queries are now working, though not all. Parameters for the NFL, where most of my sports investment attention has been this weekend, such as Division and Playoffs are two obvious ones, so as with the replacement gimmethedog site it's proceed with caution, but definitely good news. 

The 'official' results for the NFL's Small Road 'Dogs System are also slightly improved as the Killer Sports record is 44-24 compared with that of gimmethedog which had a record of 43-26. 

Differences are to be expected since lines vary from book to book and determining the line to record against is often subjective. In the same way that each of us has our own inflation rate, which may or may not be close to the 'official' inflation rate, every person playing this system would likely have had a different precise outcome, though there is no doubt that everyone would have been nicely in profit. 

The differences between the two sources for the season are shown below:

The EPL Draw System had one selection and one winner this weekend, with Aston Villa and Manchester United playing to a 2:2 finish. At least one reader (a Manchester United fan who must have had mixed feelings about the Villa comeback) was on this one, and again, depending on where and when you source your prices for this system, this was either a "Toss-Up" selection or a "Close" selection. The 'official' results use the Pinnacle Closing price as recorded by Football Data, but when I ran the numbers on Saturday, this was a Toss-Up although the official category is "Close". 

This brings the ROI on these selections to 40%, which exceeds the previous best season of 2012-13 but still almost half of the season to go. 

Also a record so far for the Toss-Ups, so hoping more than just one of you are riding these this season.

I hope Betty Blogger won't mind me revealing that he's been doing some work looking at the Draw in other top leagues, with some interesting findings, especially in La Liga. 

One reader wrote to me, I shan't use his name a wrote an e-mail rather than posted a comment, saying:
Hi, I've been reading your blog for a long time. Have you ever wondered what the impact of a draw in a match is related to the fact that it tied in the previous match? I noticed or it seems to me that sometimes a draw occurs more often than there was a draw in the previous game. What do you think about it.

I'm not sure if this thought refers to the idea that we should take into account the previous season's result of the game between two teams, or whether it's that we should look at the previous game for each team. I think it's probably the former, but either way, I don't believe there's any evidence that a Draw has any predictive value. As I've written before, clubs change from week to week, never mind season to season, with managers, playing styles, players / injuries as well as external factors such as weather and how critical the game is to both sides. Some people put a lot of weight into past results but I'm highly sceptical to say the least. Unfortunately finding an edge isn't this easy.

It was a busy weekend, as I had another e-mail, this one from Milan.


I was searching for some articles about arbitrage today and I came across this page

I noticed that you linked to one of my favorite articles about arbitrage

I just wanted to give you a heads up that I created a similar article.

It’s like arbitrage betting, but more through and up to date:

It might be worth a mention on your page.

Either way, keep up the awesome work!

Cheers, Milan from WinMakingsters!

If arbitrage is your thing, and good luck keeping your accounts open if you're doing this, it looks like Milan has taken some time to create a decent looking page, so check it out.

The financial markets in the US are closed today for the Martin Luther King Day holiday, which always means plenty of NBA games, but the FTSE and Nikkei had solid gains which is a promising sign. I'm currently down overall by 2.01% for the year, not quite the worst January on record which was -2.44% in 2016 but in actual money the worst ever. Onwards and upwards.   


AT said...

Hey mate the Betty Blogger link is broken. Would love to read it!

Dr Tsouts said...

I believe there are more than one readers who are betting on draws,at least two including me! I also started to track draws in Serie B and top 2 Spain leagues. There are some Twitter accounts with draw picks and one of them also suggests the 1-1 correct score with good returns.