New Year, Same Old Tesla

There were three selections for the EPL Draw Systems this weekend, with the hottest bet of the season so far - Chelsea v Liverpool - a winner. 

Brentford v Aston Villa and Everton v Brighton and Hove Albion were the two losing selections, but calendar year 2022 is off to a profitable start, and the 2021-22 season ROIs are now up to 33.5% (Close) and 66.7% (Toss-Up).

No winners in the NFL this weekend for the Small Road Dogs, but with only one selection (Miami Dolphins +3), not too much damage done to the season's record which now stands at 40-25, with an ROI of 20.1%.

I commented in my last post of 2021 that:

In the NBA the edge for Unders on Totals of 212.5 or higher seems to have faded somewhat while I was away but still up on the season with a gain of 25.3 points and an ROI of 6.8%. With December looking to be a losing month though, I need to take a look at the data before I resume betting on these.

Although backing Unders on Totals greater than 212.5 is still profitable for the season with a 57.2% winning record, at the time I left in early December this figure was 60%. 

I think I'll sit these bets out for the time being and play the Overs in matches where the last game for the Road team went Under, but for the Home team went Over. 

Currently this "system" has an 88.5% winning record (69-9), and a 23 game winning streak since December 8th, though those numbers will soon be updated to 88.6% and 24 as the Charlotte Hornets v Washington Wizards game went over last night. 

While the market is prone to recency bias, I'm struggling to find a rationale for this new inefficiency but I thought it might be of interest to some of you. In matches where both teams are coming off one day of rest, the percentage of Overs is 90.6%, a 29-3 record for the season.

Of much more significance to my bottom line was Tesla's move today, rising more than 13.5% on the first trading day of the year.

This (13.5%, not my total gain on this stock) wouldn't be a terrible return for a full year for many stocks, but Tesla has a history of double digit percentage moves with @Bespoke informing us that:

Over the last two years, Tesla has had more one day moves of at least 10% (29) than bitcoin (17)

and that:

Tesla's average daily move over the last 2 years has been +/-3.3% compared to +/-2.7% for bitcoin.

It's certainly a great start to the year, even though the UK markets were closed, and there could be more for Tesla.: