While the National League playoffs are complete, those of the Football League are still in progress with the Semi-Final second legs starting today and the Final matches still to come.
When it comes to the second leg of these games, there's a lot of value to be had backing the Away team in games where they trail from the first leg, but unfortunately this scenario is missing this year after four Home wins and two Draws.
For the record, the ROI in these situations is 49% from a sample size of 39 matches.
When the tie is level after the first leg, the edge on backing Home teams is 15%, with Middlesbrough and Barnsley qualifiers this year.
Sheffield Wednesday trail by four goals, the second largest deficit ever behind Morecambe's six in 2010, a lead which was cut to five after they beat Dagenham and Redbridge at Home in the second leg 2:1 when priced at 1.89.
The three remaining matches all see the Home side with a one goal deficit, and in such matches there's an edge when backing the Draw - the ROI is 18% from the 30 previous matches, and 39% when the Draw is second favourite.
When the Draw is priced at a fair 3.5 or shorter, the ROI is 121%, and the Carlisle United v Bradford City game is currently in this range, but the sample is just six games so don't get carried away.
No comments:
Post a Comment