Most seasons, at least one of the three Football League Playoff Finals ends in a Draw, but this is the first time that all three required extra-time, and for good measure, the National League Playoff Final earlier this month also finished level after 90 minutes.
Results from blindly backing the draw in these finals isn't historically as good as in the final matches of some other competitions, but it's not the worst of ideas outside of the Championship. As you might expect, the Draw in these Finals is rarely a longshot, with only one of the 80 matches having the Draw at greater than a fair-priced 4.0, and just three other matches saw the favourite at odds-on, meaning that 76 of the 80, or 95%, of matches were games where the Draw was at least worth looking at. Since those four matches were basically a wash - technically a 0.01 unit profit, I'll include all 80 in the summary below:
It's the Europa League Final tomorrow and a rare match where all three outcomes are rated close to a 1 in 3 probability. Betfair's prices at the time of writing are:
Odds Portal's Average Odds (with a 103.8% overround) are currently:
Only four matches of the 1856 in my European Club Matches spreadsheet have been as close:
And only two of 769 matches on the English club spreadsheet fit this rare profile, and combined, all six matches went Under 2.5 with three ending as Draws. Under is currently around 1.53.
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