National League Playoffs Review 2023

The National League has a knack for end-of-season drama, with Notts County yet again coming from behind late in the game, not once but twice, before regaining their Football League place at the expense of Chesterfield by virtue of a penalty shoot-out win. 

Notts County were one of the Football League's original 12 clubs, and being founded in 1862 were once considered to be the oldest professional association football league club in the world before Crystal Palace usurped that claim in recent years with a revised foundation date of 1861.

Just two of the Original Twelve clubs have dropped out of the league previously, with Accrington the only club never to return, so it's good to see Notts County back. 

Incidentally, Accrington do have the claim to fame that they are the only club ever to play all their football league seasons in the top division. Other fascinating Original Twelve trivia is that Notts County were the first of the clubs to play in Division Two (1893), Division Four (1959) and the National League (2019).

So to get back to the drama aspect for a moment, it's interesting to compare Notts County's loss in the playoffs last season with their semi-final win this season.

In 2022, at home to Grimsby Town, Notts County led until the 96th minute before a late equaliser took the game into extra-time where they lost after Grimsby scored a winner in the 119th minute.

 

In 2023, at home to Boreham Wood, Notts County trailed until the 97th minute before a late equaliser took the game into extra-time where they won after scoring a winner in the 120th minute.

What are the odds on Chesterfield regaining their league place next season with a similar script? 

All the National League playoff games are now complete, and the delayed updates can now be posted. I didn't have time to run the numbers on the "lay the rested team" strategy in the Regional Leagues before heading off on my work trip last week, and my hurried wording was perhaps rather confusing with Beigemartin concerned I may have missed out:

The strategy had another three winners from the four Regional games and the ROI across all the National Leagues moved up to 47% from the 32 matches since the current format was introduced in 2017-18. The National League South is the only division where this strategy fails to be profitable, but the sample size (10) is very small. 

Fourteen of the 32 matches had an odds-on favourite at fair odds, and only two of these managed to win. Laying the home side in these matches now has an ROI of 109%. Here are all the 32 matches with the Home team's odds:

When it comes to the playoff Final, the Regional games are played at the home of the higher seed, whereas for the National League itself the match is played at a neutral venue, this year's final being held at Wembley. 

Readers will be aware that in Final matches, backing the Draw is often the best strategy, and these games are no exception.

Backing the Draw in National Finals has an ROI of 25% (from 20 matches), 33% in 28 Regional Finals and overall an ROI of 29%.

Only six of the 48 matches had an odds-on favourite (at fair odds) and four of these ended as Draws.