Monday 18 September 2023

Follow The 'Script

My warning about favourites in Rugby proved timely this weekend with Fiji upsetting Australia who were a 1.49 favourite, or at least that's the average price calculated by Odds Portal although it's a price that can almost always be improved upon. (Odds Portal's average prices typically amount to a 108% overround). 

Nevertheless, it's a useful benchmark and the upset now means that of the 44 internationals where the favourite was in the 1.45 to 1.55 range, exactly half have now failed to win, across all competitions. 

It also makes next weekend's Wales v Australia Pool C game a lot more interesting, and this is one of two games in the next round of group matches that look competitive. 

The favourite is priced at 1.01 in three games, with three more at 1.06, 1.11 and 1.13 but along with Australia (1.84) v Wales is South Africa (1.73) v Ireland. 

These are again risky propositions for backing favourites, with the 1.79 to 1.89 range providing just 11 winners from 21 matches, and the 1.68 to 1.78 range just 9 from 17. 

With an unusual two Monday Night games in the NFL, Week Two isn't yet over, but it was an interesting Sunday for Totals backers, with 11 of the first 12 matches going Over. 

Sacred Manuscript readers may have been a little nervous investing on Unders in the 13th (unlucky for some) game of the day, but those who kept the faith were rewarded with a winner. 12 of the 16 games went Under in Week One and now 12 of 14 have gone Over in Week Two. 

With a 4-0 sweep for the Road 'Dogs System this weekend, two of which were also qualifiers in the Divisional System, the NFL record so far is a hard-to-believe combined 19-3. 

And the College System also had a 100% record this weekend which sounds better than writing that we had one winner making it 3-3 for the season there. 

It won't last of course, but there are enough lows in investing to justify a little exuberance when the good times come along. 

Home teams are currently winning just 40% of games, and no season since 1988 has ended with Home teams at less than 50%, although the trend is downward with four of the lowest percentages coming in the past five seasons.  

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