Saturday 14 October 2023

Byes, Dogs and Rugby Union QFs

It's not been a bad week so far. Our baseball underdogs continued to shine with 13 wins from 21 games through the Wild Card and Division Series rounds. We have a couple of days off until the League Championship Series round starts on Sunday

The three teams who each won more than 100 games during the regular season - Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers - are all eliminated, which adds fuel to the fire for the idea that byes aren't always a good thing, at least not in a sport where teams are active daily rather than weekly, for example the NFL. 

Two of the four remaining teams play in the same Division - American League West - and while there are only a handful of playoff matches of this nature, the 'dog has won five of the nine to date. The Houston Astros won nine of the 13 regular season games between the two clubs.

In the NFL, we started Week 6 with a win last night, but it doesn't look like there will be too many selections for the Small Road 'Dogs this weekend. although one is a Division game.

In contrast, it looks like the College Football systems will have around ten potential qualifiers in their Week 7 round of matches with most matches available on Betfair, albeit with little liquidity so far. 

I'm most looking forward to the Rugby this weekend, and if England should fail to beat Fiji, they would be the shortest priced team to fail to win a knockout match since our records began in 2011. 

For the other three matches, historically favourites in the same range as Wales (1.55), Ireland (1.74) and France (1.77) are to be opposed. England lost to France in 2011 at 1.58, Ireland lost to Argentina in 2015 at 1.65, Ireland lost to Wales in 2011 at 1.82 with the latter losing in the next round to France at the same price. Australia did beat Wales in 2011 at 1.69, but it's a small selection of matches. 

Here are the previous Quarter-Finals:

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