False Favourites

International breaks during the league season are rarely welcome, but this one was nicely timed with the Rugby World Cup Quarter-Finals taking place.

There was some football of course. La Liga's Segunda División was in action and we had another profitable weekend here with losses for the season now down to 10.85 units - not great of course, but better than where we were a couple of weeks ago.

Our good luck with the American Football ran out with two of the NFL Underdogs getting three points but losing by four. With the College game also having a poor round, the overall American Football record was 16-20-1 but for the season the systems combined are 81-51-5 which is a strike rate of 61%, i.e. well above the 51.23% needed for most of us to be profitable on these bets. 

Baseball underdogs continued where they left off with two wins from three in the Division Series and a 15-9 record and +10.15 units. 

But it was in the Rugby World Cup where we really had success. Looking at numbers rather than teams, it was clear that the value in these games was on backing the favourite when short-priced and opposing the favourite otherwise.

The shortest priced favourite to lose a World Cup elimination game was New Zealand at 1.39 in 2019. Otherwise favourites up to, and including 1.42, had all won their games. 17 winners from 18. 

Above that price, and the market produces false favourites. Of ten such matches, including this past weekend, only two have been won by the favourite. 

I wrote on Sunday morning:

Today they [South Africa] are underdogs at around 2.42 to beat host nation France and these odds look good value to me.

For once, we had luck on our side. Q. When was the last World Cup game to be won with the help of a blocked conversion? A. Never. Ireland could have won their match, and England weren't exactly convincing, but sometimes these things go your way. It won't last.

Unfortunately the New Zealand / South Africa double won't make you too wealthy next weekend with both favourites by some distance the shortest in World Cup history for a Semi-Final. But the Final should be good! 

World Cup Semi-Finals, Finals and Favourite's price: