Sunday, 14 June 2009

'Ello Elo

For one full season, I have been diligently updating my Elo ratings of English and Scottish teams. Since the starting values were somewhat arbitrary, I figured it would take a while to settle down, but they did show promise early this year. Unfortunately, towards the end of the season there are too many meaningless games, so just as it starts to look good, I had to ease off the throttle somewhat.

I am carrying the ratings over to next season, but for ten matches or so will not involve myself in any matches involving any of the promoted or relegated teams, since their ratings are somewhat false. Relegated teams are rated too low, and promoted teams too high, owing to their respective struggles or successes last season. For example I have Birmingham City currently rated 11th in the Premier League, whereas poor old West Bromwich Albion are ranked 24th in the Championship, both obviously wrong, and will need a few games to adjust.

Mind you, I would happily put my ratings up against those at where Newcastle United are rated 7th best team in England, Cambridge United 11th and AFC Wimbledon 12th (and 112th best in all of Europe!). Torquay United are 16th, Kidderminster Harriers are 19th, just ahead of West Ham in 20th followed by Stevenage Borough. Some bizarre numbers there, I think most would agree, but if the ratings are used solely for League games, then these anomalies don't actually matter too much.

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