Monday, 1 June 2009

May - June

Well, it’s that time of the month again. No, not THAT time of the month. It's the time of the month when I bore you all with a summary of the month just ended, and a preview of the month ahead.

May was a lot better than April, and actually could be my best May ever if tonight's results go to plan. I got very lucky with a bet on Nadal to win the French Open, backing him pre-tournament at 1.45, and going green-all-over yesterday at 1.4. Not sure why I wasn’t comfortable with leaving the bet to run given his impressive record there, but perhaps the ‘blink’ instinct somehow told me all was not well with him. More likely it was because I wasn’t happy that the odds initially moved against me, which made me a little nervous and so when the opportunity presented itself to lock in a profit, I did. I certainly wouldn’t claim to be an expert on tennis. A lay of Tim Clark today also helped the bottom line. Lay the leader on the final few holes unless his name is Tiger Woods seems to be a solid strategy. It seems that the price is almost always too short.

In the southern hemisphere, and Rugby Union, the Bulls won the Super 14 as predicted here, and in the other code, the NRL has been profitable aside from the Parramatta Eels loss this weekend. Can't win 'em all. Aussie Rules is also in profit, and as we are now in mid-season the ratings should continue that trend, hopefully through to September. The IPL season finished with a small profit too.

In the USA, and both the NBA and the NHL are into their final series of the season with a maximum of seven games to go in each. Income from baseball has been less than usual this year – 53% down on last year. Liquidity appears to be a lot lower than usual for in-play, and I’m not too hopeful that it will pick up. In-play ice hockey died when the delay was upped to 8 seconds, and baseball has jumped to 6 seconds as of this season.

Not to worry, I can spend the summer looking at my stats and trying to find a way to make football pay. In May football losses reduced my profit by no less than 38%, although as I wrote yesterday, when I stay away from spontaneous 'seems like a good idea at the time' in-play decisions, I am ahead. Since I try to approach my investing as a business, the football in-play division has been closed down. I would sell it if I could, but I don’t think that anyone would be too interested in buying it! Let me know if I'm wrong.

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