Sunday, 21 June 2009

Fathers' Day Thoughts - Value Lays

Could Volleyball be the summer basketball? I don't know much about it, but I'm learning. I'm seeing the same price movements from basketball repeating, and as I write this I am green-all-over on the women's Romania v France game. A timely lay of France at 1.36/1.37, and within minutes the price is trading at 1.77. France went on to lose. Good stuff.

I am a big fan of opposing short-priced favourites in certain sports. Basketball being one of them, but I've also noticed that popular teams in other sports get backed too low at home. One example is in baseball where the New York Yankees are invariably too short. In April they lost 3 of 10, in May they lost 7 of 16, in June, they have lost 5 of 13. Total 15 losses from 39 games so an average lay price around 1.6 is profitable. I'm going to start tracking other big teams as well, the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers are my teams to follow, and see how a conservative loss recovery staking system fares for these teams. I'm not expecting this to be make me a millionaire any time soon, but if it only breaks even, the more even mix of winners and losers will certainly help with the darned Premium Charge!

I'm going to have to add the Mets, White Sox and Angels to this list! I just checked the schedule and it just so happens that all four of my initial teams to follow are on the road this week.

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