Tuesday, 1 September 2009

August Summery

August was a struggle, but then again, it always is. Every August has been profitable, but never hugely so. Overall, it is my fourth worst month of the year, ahead only of miserable May, awful April, and July by a daily average of just 17p!

Not to worry. Rather symmetrically, my six best months of the year all fall between October and March, and with September in 7th place the slow summer is almost over.

Football betting will resume in earnest mid-month once the ratings have settled down, and England seal their place in South Africa next year. The Form ratings are showing a lot of promise as I mentioned a couple of days ago (+56%) but with only 36 games played, there's no getting too excited just yet. It takes me a good 2/3 hours a week to maintain all the ratings and whilst I only do the Form and Power numbers for the Premier League so far, if I find they are profitable, then I may be spending a few more hours a week and include the lower leagues.

Across the pond, the American version of the game will soon be underway. For a major sport, it’s a very short season, (16 games plus play-offs) but plenty of trading opportunities in those few weeks. Watch for value as the market, almost without fail, over-reacts to touchdowns. You can almost see how the market is thinking.

Touchdown scored: "Great! I can't see the Cowboys losing this. They look good. I am backing at 1.3. Darn it - missed the 1.3. Heck, 1.27 is almost as good. They're winning. Can't see them losing this one."

A break for ads, and the thought creeps in that "Maybe that wasn't such a good price. The Bears came back last week".

Cowboys kick-off and the Bears roll out to the 32 yard line. Price is up to 1.35 by now...

Seriously, it happens all the time. Greed and fear, the two main market drivers at work. There's my free advice to you all. Just keep signing up to my Swop Confidentialities advice service for more. I am still a few subscribers short of my target, and a trip to Monza to pay for.

Good luck in September.

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