Saturday, 26 September 2009

Saturday Prem Selections

With the new boys in the Premier League all having six games behind them, it's time to include them in my betting.

Today's fixtures aren't too exciting to be honest, but there are a few value plays. The Big Four are all odds-on, and Liverpool at 1.16 are too short for me. The other three look good value though, especially Arsenal at 1.56.

Bolton Wanderers have better recent form than Birmingham and have played better than their results would suggest, so that makes for a lay of Birmingham.

Back Everton (2.0) @ Portsmouth
Lay Birmingham City (2.35) v Bolton Wanderers
Back Manchester United (1.42) @ Stoke City
Back Tottenham Hotspur (1.35) v Burnley
Back Chelsea (1.33) @ Wigan Athletic
Back Arsenal (1.56) @ Fulham

Update: Not too shabby, but a clean sheet ruined by a 13.5 shot!

Back Everton (2.0) @ Portsmouth W 100
Lay Birmingham City (2.35) v Bolton Wanderers W 74.07
Back Manchester United (1.42) @ Stoke City W 42
Back Tottenham Hotspur (1.35) v Burnley W 35
Back Chelsea (1.33) @ Wigan Athletic L -100

Back Arsenal (1.56) @ Fulham W 56

Stake: 600 Return: 807.07 P/L: +207.07 (34.5%)

5 comments:

Steve said...

Hi mate,

nice blog! I've enjoyed reading through your old posts. I'v put a link on my blog, just wondered if you could link to me too?

Cheers & good luck

Steve
http://www.thebetfairfootballtrader.com

Anonymous said...

Cassini,

Some nice results there from Saturdays matches.

Just curious, I notice that you have a stake of 100 on each match posted.

I dont mean to be nosy but is this how you stake? To be honest, Im not interested in the amount, more the methodology! :)

Is the flat 100 stake for illustrative purposes? (which I could understand you doing.)

Cheers,
JPG

Pete Nordsted said...

Cassini,

It is very interesting to see others perception of value. I believed out of the Big 4 this weekend only Chelsea offered real value. My stats are really based on how an opponent fared in recent matches against opposition of a similar quality and so far it has worked for me. Although i must admit this season has not started that spectacularly for myself.

I take it you are basing your value from your ratings which looks at matches against all opposition?

Cassini said...

Steve - your link is added.

JPG - the 100 is for illustrative purposes only, to show the return to a level stake.

Pete - I factor the last six (league) games against ANY opposition into the equation. That's an interesting idea to adjust them by a factor depending on opponent's rating though... I like it!

mully1 said...

Hi Cassini,
What superb results yesterday-well impressed. I've just linked your blog-could you do the same for me please sir.
Thanks, Steve