Sunday, 27 September 2009

Each-Way Don't Pay

After Chelsea's loss as a 1.33 favourite, I’ve been taking a look at the fate of all the favourites in the Premier League so far this season.

After 64 games, the favourite has won 43 times, for a profit of 14.96 points,(23.38%) to a level 1 point stake. When the favourite is odds-on, the profit from 34 games and 28 wins is 9.48 (27.88%) and when the favourite is at evens or greater, the profit is 5.48 – 18.27% (15 winners from 30 selections).

When it comes to football betting, I think of the Lay option as the equivalent of the each-way bet. You fancy your selection, but just in case they don’t have enough, you get the draw on your side too. You get more frequent winners, but lower returns.

Clearly, while laying the draw would have been a most lucrative strategy so far this season, when it comes to opposing a team, one would have been better off to simply back the opponent.

Aren’t statistics fun?

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