Wednesday, 23 September 2009

Footy Thoughts


I guess it isn't all bad when you have your second worst day of the year, and still pay the Premium Charge three days later, albeit a much reduced figure. There's that silver lining.

I don't bet on Cup matches, so no football action for me this week until Saturday. I do update the Elo ratings with these results though. It's one way that points move between the divisions. I've mentioned that for the Premier League, I have been recording more than just the results, and also rating teams by the strength of their overall performance. It makes interesting reading (if you like this sort of thing). Top and bottom 6 only (it's only SO interesting). My Elo ranking in parentheses.

1. Chelsea (2)
2. Manchester United (1)
3. Liverpool (3)
4. Arsenal (4)
5. Tottenham (5)
6. Everton (6)

15. Birmingham (12)
16. Sunderland (17)
17. Stoke (14)
18. Hull (19)
19. Burnley (8)
20. Fulham (10)

While the top 6 reflect very closely the teams overall rankings, the bottom six aren't close. On results, Portsmouth are ranked 20th, Bolton Wanderers 18th, Wigan Athletic 16th and Blackburn Rovers 15th, but their match performances suggest their rankings are too low. Basically teams like Burnley, Fulham and Stoke City appear to be getting results that perhaps they don't deserve. These things tend to catch up with you, and I'll be keeping a close eye on my bottom six over the next few weeks.

2 comments:

Rob The Builder said...

I'll have a fiver with you on Fulham's position come May time. I can think of at least 8 worse teams in the Premier League. I think they'll finish in the top 12.

The problem is that, as you say, teams could be getting results they don't deserve. But alternatively, they could be underperforming, but have the determination to grind out results until they hit form.

PS I think Burnley will struggle, but Stoke look solid to me. Hull, Pompey and Burnley for the drop.

Peter Webb said...

You may be interested in this: -

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2009/06/11/money-can-buy-you-success/