Friday, 18 September 2009

Blades On Thin Ice

A continuation of my last post really, but over the past couple of days, some more examples of how laying at low odds can be extremely rewarding.

I'm watching the Sheffield derby as I write, but have no financial interest in the game having missed the first half. Sheffield United were 3-0 up and a massive, well, to me it's massive, £268,630 was backed at either 1.01 or 1.02. Given that the game is a local derby, and that Sheffield Wednesday would most likely return for the second-half after an ear-bashing, was this value for the backers? Even if United do win, as it looks like they will, one goal for Wednesday was enough to elevate the price to 1.1 or so. The second made it 1.36 or so.

I noticed a baseball game earlier in the week where the home team was down by two with a man on base but down to their last out. Money was trying to back the leaders at 1.01 with an excellent home-run hitter coming to bat... one swing of the bat later and the game is tied and going into extra innings, and yes, I DID have a (small) interest in that one. Later the same day I layed another team up by 4 in the 8th inning again at 1.01. The bottom of the 8th, and the first two got on base, and the price shot up to 1.11. They ended up losing 4-3, but the point is that the downside of laying at 1.01 or 1.02 is very small.


Rob The Builder said...

You can win both backing or laying at low odds. It comes back to your old favourite, value.

Womens tennis in particular seems to offer plenty of situations to lay at low odds. I'm regularly banging on about the mental fragility of numerous WTA players, and turnarounds are quite regular.
Alternatively, I've no problem with placing the odd back at 1.02 and 1.03 if I think I'm getting value, usually on soccer.

Cassini said...

Totally agree with you. I back at 1.01 myself, just not in derby games with half the game to go, baseball games where one swing of the bat can change the outcome. Like you say, it is all about value!