Wednesday, 1 April 2015

Midweak v Weakend

While I haven't tracked the outcomes of FTL selections by day, I do have them broken down by "Weekend" (Friday through Monday) and "Midweek" (Tuesday through Thursday). I also had a special round for the New Year's Day matches.

Graeme (TFAs) Tweet came to my attention after the Emperor of Hackney Tweeted:

He may be an Emperor, hopefully one wearing clothes, but in this regard I believe he is mistaken, and besides, when has this blog ever been 'scathing'?

What I have argued in the past, is that changing a strategy because you are in the last few days of a month (or year, or any arbitrary period of time) makes no sense. One of my most read posts was on this subject, the famous Cassini v Iverson post from July 2012. 

Days of the week is a different topic, and with nearly 9,000 selections in the FTL it does appear that entrants struggle in Midweek matches more than at the Weekend.

Excluding the Push outcomes, the numbers are as follows:
The difference between Weekend and Midweek is readily apparent, even to a non statistician such as myself. Midweek matches have made up less than 14% of selections, yet have contributed 65% of the total losses. Per selection, the Midweek selections are 12 times as bad!

Graeme's own TFA Draws are -5.60 on the Weekend (180 matches) and -6.80 on the Midweek (51) matches.

Skeeve has an FAQ on his web site on the subject, which reads:
It could well be an issue with the lower leagues rather than the top leagues. Graeme's TFA Euro Draws in Midweek are up 2.07 points, with the Weekend picks down 49.98 and my own XX Draws and XX Unders are both holding their own on the Midweek games, (-0.09 and +2.83).

The Bundeslayga is up 4.45 on 9 Midweek matches, which actually beats the +3.09 from 65 Weekend games.

Something to look at in the Summer methinks.

And Skeeve, if you are reading this and would care to shed some light on the rationale behind your boycott of midweek games, we'd love to hear from you. Some of us may be joining you.

1 comment:

jamiea said...

Are the bookmakers more or less accurate for weekend v midweek?